Memphis visits South Florida on Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium, with an 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN. The game turns on whether the Bulls' pass defense can hold up against a Memphis air attack that throws for far more than South Florida usually allows.
The Matchup
Memphis Tigers: 7-2 (5-0 at home)
South Florida Bulls: 6-3 (4-1 at home)
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Thursday, November 12, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Line (DraftKings): MEM -3.5, O/U 49.5
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What Decides It
Memphis's passing game is the mismatch South Florida has to solve.
The Tigers throw for nearly 291 yards a game, and the Bulls allow about 183 through the air. Of the yardage matchups in this game, none tilts further toward one side, and it tilts toward the visitors.
The volume has not come at a cost. Marcus Stokes has 25 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions, and Hunter Tipton leads the receivers with 5 touchdown catches.
South Florida's defense gives the Bulls a real chance to keep this close.
The Bulls allow about 15 points a game, well below the nearly 24 Memphis gives up. They held their last two home opponents to 10 points and 2 points.
The offense has a path, too. South Florida runs for about 148 yards a game, and Memphis allows nearly 188 on the ground. Leaning on D.J. Crowther would shorten the game and keep the Memphis offense off the field.
The total says the market trusts South Florida's defense more than Memphis's offense.
These teams combine for 63.5 points a game on their season averages, 14 more than the posted total. That number only makes sense if the Bulls drag Memphis well below its usual output.
Memphis's recent scoring cuts both ways. It put up 49 and 41 points in its last two games, both at home, but its most recent road game ended in a 31-17 loss.
Players to Watch
Memphis Tigers
Passing: Marcus Stokes – 179-259, 2,532 YDS, 25-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jaylin Carter – 151 ATT, 929 YDS, 10 TD
Receiving: Hunter Tipton – 35 REC, 495 YDS, 5 TD
Carter gives Memphis a second threat, which makes it harder for South Florida to commit extra help against the pass.
South Florida Bulls
Passing: Michael Van Buren Jr. – 116-181, 1,273 YDS, 6 TD
Rushing: D.J. Crowther – 138 ATT, 689 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Bryson Rodgers – 38 REC, 395 YDS, 3 TD
Crowther is the Bulls' best route to controlling the clock against a Memphis run defense that has given up yards all season.
Prediction
Memphis 31, South Florida 24. The Tigers' passing edge is too wide for the Bulls' defense to erase, even with Tampa crowd support behind them. South Florida can trade blows on the ground, but Memphis covers the 3.5 and the game clears the 49.5 total.