The Arizona Cardinals visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, and the matchup turns on a Dallas run defense giving up nearly 146 rushing yards a game. That gives Arizona's ground game a real opening. The Cardinals have also been a better team away from home, which keeps this closer than the line suggests.

The Matchup

Away: Arizona Cardinals (2-5, 2-2 road)
Home: Dallas Cowboys (3-4, 1-2 home)
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (indoor)
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line: DAL -7, O/U 54.5 (DraftKings)

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys tickets
We may earn a commission from ticket purchases made through this link.

What Decides It

Arizona's run game gets an inviting test. The Cardinals average 96 rushing yards a game, while Dallas allows about 50 more than that on the ground. If Arizona simply plays to the Dallas average, it would run well above its own norm.

The Dallas front is also short-handed. Linebacker Dee Winters is out, defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard is on injured reserve and defensive tackle Kenny Clark is questionable. The catch is Arizona's own interior line: guard Jon Gaines II is out and center Hjalte Froholdt is questionable.

The same door swings the other way. Arizona allows about 126 rushing yards a game, and Dallas averages 94 on the ground. Javonte Williams has turned his carries into 8 touchdowns, so Dallas finishes drives even without a dominant rushing total.

Arizona travels better than it hosts. The Cardinals are 0-3 at home and 2-2 on the road, and their only win in the last five games was an 18-16 result away from home. Dallas offers little home-field resistance, going 1-2 at AT&T Stadium.

Dallas does arrive with momentum after a 38-21 road win. Before that, though, the Cowboys had dropped two straight, scoring 13 and 16 points.

The total of 54.5 is a bet on bad defense, not good offense. These teams combine for about 47 points a game, well short of the number. What closes the gap is the other side of the ball: Arizona allows nearly 30 points a game and Dallas nearly 26.

Dallas's passing game is where the extra points most likely come from. The Cowboys throw for about 264 yards a game against an Arizona pass defense allowing about 244. George Pickens is questionable with a shoulder injury and KaVontae Turpin is out, which puts more of the load on CeeDee Lamb.

Players to Watch

Arizona Cardinals

Passing: Jacoby Brissett – 183-282, 1,600 YDS, 10-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jeremiyah Love – 67 ATT, 245 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Trey McBride – 59 REC, 472 YDS, 4 TD

Love is the swing piece. If he finds the room the Dallas run defense has been giving up, Brissett gets manageable downs and McBride gets matchups underneath.

Dallas Cowboys

Passing: Dak Prescott – 178-273, 1,851 YDS, 13-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Javonte Williams – 110 ATT, 472 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: CeeDee Lamb – 53 REC, 651 YDS, 6 TD

Prescott has 13 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, and Lamb leads the team in receiving. With Pickens uncertain, expect Lamb to see even more volume.

Injury Report

Arizona Cardinals

Out: Jon Gaines II (G) – Ankle; Walter Nolen III (DT) – Ankle
Questionable: Max Melton (CB) – Knee; Andrew Wingard (S) – Knee; Hjalte Froholdt (C) – Knee

Dallas Cowboys

Injured Reserve: Jonathan Bullard (DT) – Calf
Out: Dee Winters (LB) – Calf; KaVontae Turpin (WR) – Ribs
Questionable: Kenny Clark (DT) – Back; George Pickens (WR) – Shoulder

Prediction

Dallas has the better quarterback and the better scoring offense, at 27 points a game, and that should be enough to win. But a thin Dallas front against a road team that plays better away from home points to a one-score game, not a blowout. Cowboys win, Arizona covers, and the total lands just under.