The Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, November 1, 1:00 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is 0-4 at home and 2-1 on the road, and it is still laying points. Thunderstorms in the forecast push this toward a ground game both defenses are built to stop.

The Matchup

Records: Atlanta Falcons 3-4 (road 2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-5 (home 0-4)
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): TB -2.5, O/U 43.5

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers tickets
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What Decides It

Atlanta's pass defense is the soft spot Tampa Bay has to attack, and it is not built to attack it. The Falcons give up about 271 passing yards a game. The Buccaneers throw for only about 169, so the matchup hands Tampa Bay its best chance to move the ball through the air.

The problem is personnel. Emeka Egbuka is out with a foot injury, and Chris Godwin Jr. leads the team with just 243 receiving yards. Baker Mayfield has 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, which is not a line that suggests a breakout in the rain.

Bijan Robinson against the Tampa Bay run defense is the matchup that should decide it. Atlanta runs for nearly 140 yards a game, while Tampa Bay allows about 77 on the ground. Something has to give.

Robinson has 704 yards and 4 touchdowns on 131 carries. Brian Robinson Jr. is out with a hamstring injury, so the Falcons' ground game runs through Bijan. The same story holds the other way: Tampa Bay runs for about 146 a game into an Atlanta defense allowing 89.

Tampa Bay's home record is a real warning sign, not noise. The Buccaneers have lost all four games in Tampa, including a 26-19 overtime loss in their last home outing. They are coming off a 43-13 road win, which only sharpens the split.

Atlanta shows the same split. The Falcons are 1-3 at home but 2-1 away, with road wins of 45-24 and 35-14 in their last five games. They arrive off a 29-20 home win.

Players to Watch

Atlanta Falcons

Passing: Michael Penix Jr. – 96-144, 1,157 YDS, 9-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson – 131 ATT, 704 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Drake London – 38 REC, 616 YDS, 1 TD

Penix has protected the ball, with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. London is the downfield threat Tampa Bay has to account for.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing: Baker Mayfield – 68-107, 679 YDS, 3-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Bucky Irving – 120 ATT, 558 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Chris Godwin Jr. – 27 REC, 243 YDS

Irving is the engine of the offense. If Atlanta's run defense holds, Mayfield has to win a passing matchup without Egbuka.

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Emeka Egbuka (WR) – Out: Foot; Luke Goedeke (OT) – Questionable: Calf; Kenny Gainwell (RB) – Questionable: Hip; Josh Hayes (CB) – Injured Reserve: Knee; Christian Rozeboom (LB) – Injured Reserve: Finger

Atlanta Falcons: Anterio Thompson (DT) – Out: Undisclosed; Brian Robinson Jr. (RB) – Out: Hamstring; Divine Deablo (LB) – Questionable: Forearm; Olamide Zaccheaus (WR) – Questionable: Shoulder; Beaux Collins (WR) – Injured Reserve: Hip

Weather

Conditions: Thunderstorms, 76°F, gusts 13 mph, 63% precipitation

Wet conditions favor the two run games and hurt a Tampa Bay passing attack that already struggles. The total of 43.5 sits below the 47.5 points these teams average combined, and the forecast backs the market's lean toward less scoring.

Prediction

Atlanta wins it. The Falcons have the more efficient quarterback, the better receiver and a road form that Tampa Bay's home record cannot match. Rain caps the Buccaneers' best path, the passing game, and Robinson does enough to grind out a close one.

Pick: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20