The Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday, November 9, 8:15 p.m. ET. The game turns on whether a Minnesota defense allowing about 13 points a game can slow a Buffalo offense scoring 33.
The Matchup
Buffalo Bills: 6-1 (home 3-1, road 3-0)
Minnesota Vikings: 6-1 (home 3-0, road 3-1)
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (indoor)
Kickoff: Monday, November 9, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, ABC
Line (DraftKings): BUF -3, O/U 43.5
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings tickets
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What Decides It
Minnesota's defense is the reason this is a contest, and it has to carry the Vikings again. Minnesota allows just over 13 points a game while scoring 20, so its margin comes from the defensive side. The Vikings have not allowed more than 19 points in any of their last five games.
Buffalo is the toughest test of that run. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in each of their last five games, including 36 in their most recent win. Something gives, and the edge goes to whichever unit sets the tempo early.
Minnesota's best path to points runs through Buffalo's secondary. The Bills give up 269 passing yards a game, while the Vikings throw for 185. Buffalo allows far more through the air than on the ground, and it will be without cornerback Jordan Hancock, who is on injured reserve.
Justin Jefferson leads Minnesota in receiving and has 4 touchdowns, and Carson Wentz leads the team in passing. Minnesota is also without quarterback Kyler Murray, who is out with a hamstring injury. The Vikings need to attack Buffalo's soft spot rather than settle for a low-scoring grind.
Buffalo has an edge on the ground that Minnesota has to answer. The Bills run for 148 yards a game against a Vikings defense allowing 117. James Cook III has 7 rushing touchdowns, and he gives Buffalo a way to move the ball without leaning only on Josh Allen.
The concern is up front. Offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson are both questionable, and losing either would make that run game harder to sustain.
Players to Watch
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen – 135-205, 1,793 YDS, 11-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: James Cook III – 138 ATT, 707 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Dalton Kincaid – 27 REC, 401 YDS, 2 TD
Minnesota Vikings
Passing: Carson Wentz – 23-39, 276 YDS, 3 TD
Rushing: Aaron Jones Sr. – 110 ATT, 458 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Justin Jefferson – 28 REC, 335 YDS, 4 TD
Injury Report
Buffalo Bills
Alec Anderson (OT): Questionable – Ankle
Dion Dawkins (OT): Questionable – Ribs
Tyrell Shavers (WR): Out – Knee (ACL)
Joshua Palmer (WR): Out – Hamstring
Jordan Hancock (CB): Injured Reserve – Hamstring
Minnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray (QB): Out – Hamstring
Jauan Jennings (WR): Out – Calf
Demond Claiborne (RB): Out – Knee
Jay Ward (S): Questionable – Knee
Theo Jackson (S): Questionable – Quadriceps
Prediction
Minnesota's defense keeps this lower than Buffalo's usual pace, but the Vikings' offense has topped out at 23 points in its last five games and is missing Murray. Buffalo can lean on Cook and the run game to control the clock, and Allen only needs a couple of scoring drives through the air. Bills 24, Vikings 17.