The Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, November 15, riding a 4-game winning streak. The Jets have lost 4 straight and list leading receiver Garrett Wilson as questionable with a concussion. Gusts to 27 mph should make this a ground-game afternoon, and that favors Buffalo.

The Matchup

Records: Buffalo Bills 7-1 (road 4-0), New York Jets 2-7 (home 1-3)
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Line (DraftKings): BUF -8.5, O/U 50.5

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What Decides It

Buffalo's run game against the Jets' run defense is the matchup that should decide it. The Bills rush for nearly 147 yards a game, and the Jets allow 128 on the ground. James Cook III leads the way with 814 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Conditions are a factor, with gusts forecast to 27 mph. In that kind of wind, the team that can lean on the run holds the advantage, and Buffalo is the better-equipped side. The Jets run for about 105 yards a game into a Bills defense allowing about 92, so New York is less likely to find the same answer.

Garrett Wilson's status shapes everything the Jets can do through the air. Wilson leads New York with 43 catches, 527 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he is questionable with a concussion. Omar Cooper Jr. and Adonai Mitchell are also questionable, which leaves the receiver room thin.

That matters because Buffalo's pass defense gives up about 253 yards a game, and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable too. Geno Smith has thrown 12 touchdowns against 3 interceptions, so he can exploit that if his targets are healthy. Without Wilson, the opening shrinks.

The form lines point in opposite directions. Buffalo has won 4 straight and is unbeaten on the road, most recently winning 23-6 away from home. The Bills also average 32 points a game, well ahead of the roughly 25 the Jets allow.

The Jets' 4-game skid includes close home losses of 38-33 and 28-25. But they followed those with a 35-12 loss on the road, and they average about 20 points a game against a Buffalo defense allowing about 23.

Players to Watch

Buffalo Bills

Passing: Josh Allen – 156-236, 2,027 YDS, 12-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: James Cook III – 169 ATT, 814 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Dalton Kincaid – 30 REC, 429 YDS, 2 TD

New York Jets

Passing: Geno Smith – 183-271, 2,078 YDS, 12-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Braelon Allen – 120 ATT, 598 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Garrett Wilson – 43 REC, 527 YDS, 3 TD

Injury Report

Buffalo Bills

Spencer Brown (OT): Doubtful – ankle
Sam Franklin Jr. (S): Questionable – shoulder
Christian Benford (CB): Questionable – wrist
Tyrell Shavers (WR): Out – knee (ACL)
Joshua Palmer (WR): Injured Reserve – hamstring

New York Jets

Garrett Wilson (WR): Questionable – concussion
Omar Cooper Jr. (WR): Questionable – ankle
Adonai Mitchell (WR): Questionable – knee
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (CB): Questionable – illness
Trevin Wallace (LB): Out – groin

Weather

Forecast: Intermittent clouds, 50°F, gusts to 27 mph, 0% chance of precipitation

Prediction

Buffalo's run game gives it the steadier path in the wind, while the Jets' passing game hinges on a receiver room full of question marks. The Bills have handled the road all season, and the Jets have not stopped the run consistently enough to slow Cook. Take Buffalo to cover and the game to stay under 50.5.

Pick: Bills 27, Jets 16