The Dallas Cowboys visit the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The most interesting matchup here is Jonathan Taylor against a Dallas run defense giving up nearly 153 rushing yards a game. If Indianapolis is going to end its slide, that is where it starts.

The Matchup

Dallas Cowboys: 3-5 (home 1-3, road 2-2)
Indianapolis Colts: 2-6 (home 1-2, road 1-4)
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (indoor)
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): DAL -5.5, O/U 51.5

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts tickets
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What Decides It

Indianapolis has to win this game on the ground. The Colts run for about 117 yards a game, and Dallas allows well more than that at nearly 153. Taylor has 610 yards and 8 touchdowns on 148 carries, and he gets the softest run defense in this matchup.

The passing game gives Indianapolis little reason to lean the other way. Daniel Jones has thrown 5 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and the Colts average about 194 passing yards a game. Handing the ball to Taylor keeps Jones out of the situations that have hurt this offense.

The Colts are sliding, and last week was the low point. Indianapolis has lost 4 straight, the most recent a 42-7 road loss. Two of the other defeats in that run were one-score games, 16-10 and 26-20, but the offense has not topped 22 points in any of them.

That is a problem against a Dallas team averaging about 27 points a game. The Colts allow nearly 28 points a game themselves, so a low-scoring script is the only one that favors them.

Dak Prescott should find room through the air. Dallas throws for about 256 yards a game, ahead of the roughly 226 the Colts allow. Prescott has 14 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, and CeeDee Lamb has 709 receiving yards.

The Indianapolis secondary is also short-handed. Cornerback Justin Walley is out, and safety A.J. Haulcy is questionable. Dallas has its own receiver questions, but Lamb alone gives the Cowboys a clear edge in this phase.

Players to Watch

Dallas Cowboys

Passing: Dak Prescott – 197-302, 2,046 YDS, 14-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Javonte Williams – 134 ATT, 528 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: CeeDee Lamb – 60 REC, 709 YDS, 6 TD

Indianapolis Colts

Passing: Daniel Jones – 162-268, 1,542 YDS, 5-9 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor – 148 ATT, 610 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Josh Downs – 30 REC, 330 YDS, 1 TD

Injury Report

Dallas Cowboys

Out: WR KaVontae Turpin (ribs), LB Malachi Lawrence (ankle)
Questionable: TE Jake Ferguson (ankle), WR George Pickens (hamstring), LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring)

Indianapolis Colts

Injured Reserve: WR Alec Pierce (heel)
Out: LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee), CB Justin Walley (knee)
Questionable: OT Jalen Travis (thumb), S A.J. Haulcy (ankle)

Prediction

Taylor should have a productive day against a Dallas front that has given up 152.8 rushing yards a game, and that keeps the Colts in it for a half. But Jones has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and Indianapolis has not shown it can keep pace with an offense putting up 27.4 points a game. Prescott and Lamb against a thinned secondary decide it.

Pick: Cowboys 30, Colts 20