The Detroit Lions bring a 3-game winning streak to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday to face a Miami Dolphins team still looking for its first home win. The intriguing wrinkle is Detroit's pass defense, which gives up nearly 299 yards a game. Miami is poorly built to exploit it.
The Matchup
Records: Detroit Lions 5-2 (1-2 road); Miami Dolphins 1-6 (0-3 home)
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: Fox
Line: DET -6.5, O/U 49.5
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins tickets
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What Decides It
Detroit's leaky pass defense meets an offense that can't take advantage of it. The Lions will also be without cornerback D.J. Reed, who is out with a hip injury. On paper, that is the opening Miami needs.
The problem is Miami's own passing game, which produces about 181 yards a game, far below what Detroit typically surrenders. Malik Willis has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, not the kind of ratio that punishes a vulnerable secondary.
That pushes the Dolphins toward the run, where they average about 123 yards a game against a Lions defense allowing about 97. Detroit is missing linebackers Jack Campbell and DJ Wonnum, but Miami's backfield is thin too: De'Von Achane is on injured reserve, and Jaylen Wright and Kaytron Allen are both questionable.
Jared Goff should find room against Miami's secondary. Detroit throws for about 281 yards a game, while Miami's pass defense allows about 231. That is a clear edge for the Lions' passing game, and it comes from a quarterback with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the main beneficiary, leading Detroit with 53 catches. If Miami can't slow the Goff-to-St. Brown connection, Detroit can play from ahead and take the run game out of Miami's hands.
The road is the one thing that has slowed Detroit down. The Lions are unbeaten at home and 1-2 away from it. Their last road loss in this stretch was a 26-32 defeat, though their most recent road game was a 45-21 win.
The streak also comes with a caveat. Detroit's last two wins, 19-15 and 20-17, were both narrow home results. Still, Miami has lost all 3 of its home games, so the setting offers the Dolphins little comfort.
Players to Watch
Detroit Lions
Passing: Jared Goff – 168-248, 1,964 YDS, 15-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs – 157 ATT, 773 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Amon-Ra St. Brown – 53 REC, 571 YDS, 5 TD
Gibbs gives Detroit a second path. The Lions run for about 131 yards a game, and Miami's run defense allows about 113.
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Malik Willis – 108-183, 1,268 YDS, 6-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Ollie Gordon II – 91 ATT, 408 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Malik Washington – 31 REC, 329 YDS, 1 TD
Injury Report
Detroit Lions
Out: DJ Wonnum (LB, concussion), D.J. Reed (CB, hip), Cade Mays (C, ankle), Jack Campbell (LB, neck)
Questionable: Sione Vaki (RB, ankle)
Miami Dolphins
Injured Reserve: De'Von Achane (RB, knee – ACL)
Out: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, undisclosed)
Questionable: Jaylen Wright (RB, quadriceps), Kaytron Allen (RB, quadriceps), Malik Herring (DE, neck)
Prediction
Detroit's pass defense is vulnerable, but Miami's passing game has not shown it can exploit that, and the Lions' passing game holds the clearer edge on the other side. These teams average about 46 points combined, below the 49.5 total, and Miami's offense gives little reason to expect a shootout. Detroit covers on the road.