The Green Bay Packers visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, and the game turns on whether Jordan Love can carry an offense that gets little from its run game. Both teams are 5-3, and New England gets to play at Gillette Stadium, where it has not lost this season.
The Matchup
Records: Green Bay Packers 5-3 (road 2-2), New England Patriots 5-3 (road 2-3)
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): NE -3, O/U 44.5
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots tickets
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What Decides It
Green Bay's passing attack holds the clearest edge on the field. The Packers throw for nearly 281 yards a game, and the Patriots allow about 236 through the air. That is a wider gap than the one New England enjoys when it throws against Green Bay.
Love has 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and Christian Watson has turned his catches into 708 yards. If the Packers win this game, it almost certainly comes through Love and Watson.
Green Bay has to win it through the air, because the run game won't help. The Packers average about 61 rushing yards a game, well short of the 93 the Patriots typically give up on the ground. Green Bay's ground game produces less than what New England's run defense usually allows, so there is little reason to expect balance.
The depth isn't helping. Running back Chris Brooks is on injured reserve and guard Sean Rhyan is out. Add a gusty forecast, and the pressure on Love to be precise only grows.
New England is the more balanced team, and it plays like it at home. The Patriots run for about 123 yards a game against a Packers defense that allows about 111, so they have the edge on the ground that Green Bay lacks. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the way with 367 rushing yards.
The home split is stark: unbeaten at Gillette against 2-3 on the road. Their last two home games in this stretch were a 26-19 win and a 45-17 rout. Drake Maye's passing game also averages about 254 yards against a Green Bay defense allowing roughly 221.
The concern is the receiving room. A.J. Brown is out, Mack Hollins is on injured reserve and Hunter Henry is questionable, which leaves DeMario Douglas as the leading receiver with 332 yards.
Players to Watch
Green Bay Packers
Passing: Jordan Love – 192-312, 2,246 YDS, 16-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: MarShawn Lloyd – 57 ATT, 149 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Christian Watson – 42 REC, 708 YDS, 6 TD
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye – 157-234, 1,983 YDS, 15-8 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson – 96 ATT, 367 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: DeMario Douglas – 26 REC, 332 YDS, 4 TD
Injury Report
Green Bay Packers
Keisean Nixon (CB): Questionable – Groin
Zaire Franklin (LB): Out – Shin
Josh Whyle (TE): Out – Concussion
Chris Brooks (RB): Injured Reserve – Ankle
Sean Rhyan (G): Out – Ankle
New England Patriots
Mack Hollins (WR): Injured Reserve – Calf
TreVeyon Henderson (RB): Out – Illness
Hunter Henry (TE): Questionable – Foot
A.J. Brown (WR): Out – Knee
Brenden Schooler (S): Questionable – Hamstring
Weather
Forecast: Partly sunny, 57°F, gusts 25 mph, 20% precipitation
For a Packers offense that leans this heavily on the pass, the wind is the variable worth watching.
Prediction
Love and Watson should move the ball through the air, but Green Bay's run game gives it no fallback, and New England has been perfect at Gillette. The Patriots' edge on the ground, about 123 yards a game against a defense allowing about 111, gives them the balance to close it out. Patriots 24, Packers 21.