The Indianapolis Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and Jonathan Taylor runs straight into a defense that holds opponents to about 72 rushing yards a game. The Jaguars give up far more through the air, but the Colts' passing offense averages well short of what Jacksonville allows.
The Matchup
Records: Colts 2-5 (road 1-3), Jaguars 4-2 (home 3-1)
Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Line (DraftKings): JAX -10, O/U 46.5
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars tickets
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What Decides It
Jonathan Taylor is running into a wall. The Colts run for nearly 118 yards a game, and Taylor has carried the load with 8 rushing touchdowns. Jacksonville gives up far less than that on the ground.
Something has to give, and the numbers say it will be the Colts. If Jacksonville's run defense holds, Indianapolis loses a major source of offense.
The opening through the air is one the Colts are poorly built to use. Jacksonville allows 283 passing yards a game, a generous number that should invite opponents to throw. Indianapolis averages about 200 passing yards, well short of what the Jaguars typically surrender.
Daniel Jones is the issue. He has thrown 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, so forcing him to win from the pocket plays into Jacksonville's hands. Trevor Lawrence, by contrast, has 14 touchdowns against 4 interceptions on the other side.
The weather pushes this further toward Jacksonville's defense. Showers and strong gusts are forecast, conditions that make a wet ball and downfield throws harder for an offense that already struggles to pass. A Colts team that needs to throw to move the ball would be doing it in the worst possible setting.
The Jaguars have the cushion to live with a sloppy game. They allow just over 17 points a game, while the Colts have dropped 3 straight and scored only 10 in their most recent loss.
Players to Watch
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: Daniel Jones – 143-240, 1,398 YDS, 4-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor – 140 ATT, 587 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Josh Downs – 26 REC, 307 YDS
Jacksonville Jaguars
Passing: Trevor Lawrence – 120-184, 1,480 YDS, 14-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Bhayshul Tuten – 94 ATT, 388 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Parker Washington – 26 REC, 416 YDS, 4 TD
Injury Report
Indianapolis Colts
Out: Anthony Gould (WR, concussion), Justin Walley (CB, knee)
Questionable: Bryce Boettcher (LB, groin), Drew Ogletree (TE, knee)
Injured Reserve: Cam Taylor-Britt (CB, groin)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Out: Antonio Johnson (S, ankle)
Questionable: Jakobi Meyers (WR, hamstring)
Injured Reserve: Anton Harrison (OT, knee), Caleb Ransaw (S, knee), B.J. Green II (DE, elbow)
The Colts' secondary is thin, with two cornerbacks out or on injured reserve. That matters against Lawrence and the Jaguars' passing game.
Weather
Conditions: Showers, 78°F
Wind: Gusts 25 mph
Precipitation: 58% chance
Prediction
Jacksonville wins this comfortably. Taylor and the Colts' ground game face a defense that allows far fewer rushing yards than Indianapolis averages, leaving an interception-prone passing attack to beat the Jaguars in wind and rain. Expect a low-scoring game that stays under the total, with Jacksonville covering.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Colts 12