The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, November 15, at 1:00 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and their leading rusher is a question mark. Kenneth Walker III is questionable with a groin injury. Atlanta's clearest path to an upset runs through its own ground game, straight at a Kansas City run defense that has held up well.

The Matchup

Records: Kansas City Chiefs 6-2 (home 4-0, road 2-2); Atlanta Falcons 3-6 (home 1-4, road 2-2)
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (indoor)
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Line (DraftKings): KC -3, O/U 47.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons tickets
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What Decides It

Walker's status shapes the Kansas City offense. Walker has 872 yards and 7 touchdowns, the centerpiece of a run game producing nearly 138 yards a game. Jaydn Ott, another running back, is also questionable with a hamstring injury.

Offensive tackle Jaylon Moore is out with an ankle injury as well. If the ground game thins out, the load shifts to Patrick Mahomes, who has 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. That is a workable fallback against an Atlanta defense allowing about 241 passing yards a game.

Atlanta has to win this on the ground. The Falcons run for about 137 yards a game, and Bijan Robinson has 880 yards on 169 carries. Kansas City allows about 98 rushing yards a game, so this is strength against strength.

The side that bends here likely decides the afternoon. If Robinson can stay ahead of the chains, Atlanta can shorten the game and keep Mahomes on the sideline.

Kansas City's defense gives it margin for error. The Chiefs allow nearly 18 points a game while scoring about 25. Atlanta scores nearly 21 a game and has lost its last two, 34-17 at home and 16-0 on the road.

The caveat is travel. Kansas City is unbeaten at home but has lost its last two road games, 28-24 and 20-3. Atlanta has not given it much reason to worry at home, where the Falcons are 1-4.

Players to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing: Patrick Mahomes – 177-263, 2,037 YDS, 14-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Kenneth Walker III – 159 ATT, 872 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Travis Kelce – 33 REC, 482 YDS, 2 TD

Atlanta Falcons

Passing: Michael Penix Jr. – 124-199, 1,444 YDS, 10-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson – 169 ATT, 880 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Drake London – 44 REC, 692 YDS, 1 TD

Injury Report

Kansas City Chiefs

Kenneth Walker III (RB): Questionable – Groin
Jaydn Ott (RB): Questionable – Hamstring
Mansoor Delane (CB): Questionable – Shoulder
Peter Woods (DT): Out – Neck
Jaylon Moore (OT): Out – Ankle

Atlanta Falcons

Divine Deablo (LB): Doubtful – Forearm
Zachariah Branch (WR): Out – Hamstring
Josh Woods (LB): Questionable – Ankle
James Pearce Jr. (LB): Questionable – Back
Gervon Dexter Sr. (DT): Questionable – Illness

Three Atlanta linebackers are on the list, which matters whether Kansas City runs with Walker or leans on Mahomes.

Prediction

Kansas City's defense and Atlanta's struggles at home outweigh the uncertainty around Walker. Robinson should keep the Falcons in it, but a Chiefs team that has allowed 20 or fewer points in three of its last five games is the safer pick. Chiefs 24, Falcons 20.