The Las Vegas Raiders visit the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, November 1, at 1:00 p.m. ET. The game turns on one collision: a Raiders offense throwing for nearly 277 yards a game against a Jets defense allowing about 203. Whichever side wins that fight likely wins the afternoon.

The Matchup

Away: Las Vegas Raiders (3-4, 2-1 road)
Home: New York Jets (2-5, 1-2 home)
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): NYJ -1.5, O/U 45.5

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets tickets
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What Decides It

Kirk Cousins against the Jets secondary is the matchup that should decide it. Las Vegas has thrown its way to more than 26 points a game, and Cousins has 16 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. Tre Tucker has turned 29 catches into 474 yards, giving the Raiders a vertical threat.

The Jets are the one thing standing in the way. Their pass defense gives up about 74 fewer yards a game than the Raiders produce through the air. If New York holds Cousins near its usual number, the Raiders have little else to lean on.

The Jets should run the ball at a Raiders defense that cannot stop it. Las Vegas allows nearly 144 rushing yards a game, while the Jets average about 96. That gap favors New York, and Braelon Allen has 418 yards on 91 carries to lead the attack.

The Raiders are thin up front, too, with defensive end Patrick Johnson out and defensive end Keyron Crawford on injured reserve. The flip side does not help Las Vegas: Ashton Jeanty has just 328 yards on 106 carries, and the Raiders average about 75 on the ground. Even against a Jets run defense allowing nearly 128, Las Vegas has shown little sign it can make that work.

The road may suit the Raiders better than the record suggests. Las Vegas is 2-1 away from home and 1-3 at home, and three of the four losses in the current streak came at home. The road result in that run was ugly, a 45-17 loss, but the Raiders' last win came on the road, 35-27.

The Jets have not made MetLife much of a fortress, going 1-2 there. They have also lost two straight, including a 28-25 home loss last time out.

Players to Watch

Passing: Kirk Cousins (LV) – 161-257, 1,877 YDS, 16-5 (TD-INT)
Passing: Geno Smith (NYJ) – 145-207, 1,623 YDS, 10-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Braelon Allen (NYJ) – 91 ATT, 418 YDS, 2 TD
Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (LV) – 106 ATT, 328 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Tre Tucker (LV) – 29 REC, 474 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – 37 REC, 444 YDS, 3 TD

Geno Smith has protected the ball, with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Against a Raiders defense allowing more than 28 points a game, a clean day from Smith could be enough.

Injury Report

NYJ: Max Mitchell (OT) – Out, concussion
NYJ: T'Vondre Sweat (DT) – Out, knee
NYJ: Joseph Ossai (DE) – Out, ankle
NYJ: David Bailey (LB) – Doubtful, groin
NYJ: Breece Hall (RB) – Questionable, quadriceps
LV: Patrick Johnson (DE) – Out, neck
LV: Jackson Powers-Johnson (G) – Questionable, back
LV: Carter Runyon (TE) – Injured Reserve, foot
LV: Jack Bech (WR) – Injured Reserve, forearm
LV: Keyron Crawford (DE) – Injured Reserve, ankle

The Jets' list hits their defensive front hardest, with Sweat and Ossai out and Bailey doubtful. That is a lot of missing bodies against a quarterback who has been productive all season.

Prediction

The market has the Jets favored, but the win-probability model leans Las Vegas, and that is the side to take. The Raiders score more, the Jets' depleted front makes Cousins harder to contain, and Las Vegas has played its best football away from home. The Jets' running game keeps it close, but Cousins makes one more play.