The Los Angeles Chargers bring an 0-8 record into M&T Bank Stadium on Monday, November 16, 8:15 p.m. ET, and the win-probability model still makes them the pick. The Baltimore Ravens have lost 4 straight and have been worse at home than on the road, which makes this a closer call than the records suggest.

The Matchup

Records: Los Angeles Chargers 0-8 (0-4 home, 0-4 road); Baltimore Ravens 4-5 (1-3 home, 3-2 road)

Streaks: Chargers have lost 8 straight; Ravens have lost 4 straight

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

Kickoff: Monday, November 16, 8:15 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Line (DraftKings): BAL -4.5, O/U 38.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens tickets
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What Decides It

The model sees a different game than the betting line does. DraftKings has Baltimore favored at home, yet the win-probability model gives Los Angeles about a 55% chance to win and Baltimore about 45%. A winless team is the model's pick over a team with a winning road record.

The lean makes sense once you look at Baltimore's scoring. The Ravens have not scored more than 13 points in any of their last four games, and they lost all four.

Baltimore's home field has been no help. The Ravens are 1-3 at home and 3-2 on the road. Two of the four straight losses came at home, 33-10 and 35-13.

The defense is the bigger worry. Baltimore has allowed at least 33 points in each of its last three games and gives up about 26 points a game on the season.

Justin Herbert has room to throw, if he protects the ball. Baltimore allows nearly 242 passing yards a game, well above the roughly 202 the Chargers average through the air. That is an opening for Herbert and Ladd McConkey, especially with Ravens safety Jaylinn Hawkins out.

The catch is the turnovers. Herbert has thrown 11 interceptions against 6 touchdowns, and his protection is thin: guard Branson Taylor is out, guard Kayode Awosika is questionable and tackle Trey Pipkins III is on injured reserve.

Players to Watch

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing: Justin Herbert – 144-235, 1,591 YDS, 6-11 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Omarion Hampton – 102 ATT, 369 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Ladd McConkey – 17 REC, 286 YDS, 1 TD

Hampton runs into the tougher half of Baltimore's defense. The Ravens allow about 100 rushing yards a game, less than the roughly 115 the Chargers average on the ground, so the passing game has to carry Los Angeles.

Baltimore Ravens

Passing: Joe Fagnano – 20-39, 151 YDS, 3 INT
Rushing: Derrick Henry – 175 ATT, 689 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Zay Flowers – 43 REC, 614 YDS, 3 TD

With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both on injured reserve, Fagnano is Baltimore's listed passing leader. The Ravens' best path runs through Henry: Baltimore averages nearly 138 rushing yards a game, and the Chargers allow 122.

Injury Report

BAL Lamar Jackson (QB): Injured Reserve – Thumb
BAL Tyler Huntley (QB): Injured Reserve – Toe
BAL Adam Randall (RB): Injured Reserve – Neck
BAL Jaylinn Hawkins (S): Out – Knee
BAL Adisa Isaac (LB): Questionable – Hamstring

LAC Trey Pipkins III (OT): Injured Reserve – Knee
LAC Branson Taylor (G): Out – Ankle
LAC Kendall Williamson (S): Out – Calf
LAC Isas Waxter (CB): Out – Ankle
LAC Kayode Awosika (G): Questionable – Lower Leg

Prediction

Chargers 20, Ravens 17. Baltimore's offense has stalled for four straight games, and its defense has given up too much at home to trust it with a narrow lead. Herbert's interceptions are the real risk, but the model has the right lean: Los Angeles ends the streak in a low-scoring game that stays under the total.