The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, November 1, at 4:05 p.m. ET, still chasing their first win after 6 straight losses. The matchup that matters most is Matthew Stafford against a Chargers secondary that will be without Derwin James Jr. and Deane Leonard.

The Matchup

Away: Los Angeles Chargers (0-6, 0-3 road)
Home: Los Angeles Rams (3-4, 1-3 home)
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line: LAR -6.5, O/U 45.5 (DraftKings)

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams tickets
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What Decides It

The Rams' passing game is the edge that should decide it. The Rams throw for 286 yards a game, and the Chargers allow about 216 through the air. That gap is close to 70 yards a game in the Rams' favor before you account for who is missing in the Chargers' secondary.

James and Leonard are both out, and cornerback Donte Jackson is questionable with a hamstring. Stafford has 14 touchdowns against 7 interceptions, and Puka Nacua has 45 catches. A thin defensive backfield facing that pairing is where this game tilts.

The Chargers' offense has not shown it can keep pace. Over their last five games, the Chargers topped out at 23 points and bottomed out at 6 in a road loss last time out. They average 15 points a game, well short of the Rams' 24.

The issue starts at quarterback. Justin Herbert has thrown 5 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and the passing attack produces about 190 yards a game, nearly 100 fewer than the Rams. Turnovers against a Rams defense allowing 193 passing yards a game would end this early.

The total looks high for these offenses. These teams combine for about 39 points a game, and the market has set the total at 45.5. That asks for roughly a touchdown more than they have produced together.

The Rams can carry their share, but the Chargers have not reached 24 points in any of their last five games. Unless the Chargers' offense finds something new, the under is the cleaner read.

Players to Watch

Los Angeles Rams

Passing: Matthew Stafford – 187-278, 1,989 YDS, 14-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Kyren Williams – 96 ATT, 492 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Puka Nacua – 45 REC, 485 YDS, 2 TD

Nacua is the focal point against a short-handed secondary. Williams gives the Rams a second option against a Chargers run defense allowing about 124 rushing yards a game.

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing: Justin Herbert – 107-180, 1,141 YDS, 5-8 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Omarion Hampton – 80 ATT, 289 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Tre' Harris – 15 REC, 225 YDS

Hampton is the Chargers' best path to shortening the game. With receiver Brenen Thompson out, Harris carries more of the load in the passing game.

Injury Report

Los Angeles Rams
Trent McDuffie (CB): Questionable – Groin
Jordan Whittington (WR): Questionable – Back
Colby Parkinson (TE): Questionable – Ribs
Joe Cardona (LS): Doubtful – Ankle
Coleman Shelton (C): Questionable – Hip

Los Angeles Chargers
Kayode Awosika (G): Out – Lower Leg
Deane Leonard (CB): Out – Concussion
Donte Jackson (CB): Questionable – Hamstring
Derwin James Jr. (S): Out – Hamstring
Brenen Thompson (WR): Out – Quadriceps

Prediction

The Rams win this through the air. Stafford and Nacua against a secondary missing James and Leonard is too much for a Chargers offense that has not cleared 23 points in five games, and Herbert's interceptions hand the Rams extra possessions. Rams cover, and the game stays under the total.

Pick: Los Angeles Rams 26, Los Angeles Chargers 16