The Indianapolis Colts host the Miami Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, and the home team arrives on a losing streak of at least 5 games. The matchup that should decide it is Miami's modest passing game against a Colts pass defense that has been giving up yards all season.

The Matchup

Away: Miami Dolphins, 1-7 (1-3 on the road)
Home: Indianapolis Colts, 2-7 (1-3 at home)
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (indoor)
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Line (DraftKings): IND -3.5, O/U 38.5

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts tickets
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What Decides It

The Colts' pass defense is the opening Miami's offense has to exploit. Indianapolis allows about 238 passing yards a game, well more than the roughly 180 Miami throws for in a typical week. On paper, that gives the Dolphins' passing game room to work.

The problem is who is left to catch the ball. Jared Wayne is out, Chris Bell is doubtful, and quarterback Malik Willis is on injured reserve. Malik Washington, Miami's leading receiver with 350 yards, will have to carry the passing game against a defense that should let him.

Indianapolis should lean on Jonathan Taylor, because Daniel Jones has been giving the ball away. Jones has thrown 6 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and that ratio is the clearest risk on the Colts' side of the ball. Taylor has 656 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, the most reliable production on this roster.

Miami's pass defense does allow about 225 yards a game, more than the Colts' passing offense averages. But every extra throw from Jones invites the kind of mistake a 1-7 team needs to steal a road win.

Ollie Gordon II gets the softer run defense. The Colts allow 137 rushing yards a game, while Miami's run defense gives up about 112. Gordon has 463 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Miami's ground game averages nearly 118 yards a game.

If Gordon moves the chains, Miami can protect its depleted receiver room and keep this low-scoring. The Dolphins are also without center Aaron Brewer, which makes that job harder.

The Colts' streak shows a team that cannot get off the field. Indianapolis allows nearly 28 points a game, and the last 5 losses included a 42-7 rout on the road. Last week's 27-23 home loss was the closest of the run, so the margin for a turnaround is there.

Players to Watch

Indianapolis Colts

Passing: Daniel Jones – 182-302, 1,722 YDS, 6-10 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor – 161 CAR, 656 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Tyler Warren – 38 REC, 275 YDS, 2 TD

Miami Dolphins

Rushing: Ollie Gordon II – 107 CAR, 463 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Malik Washington – 33 REC, 350 YDS, 1 TD

Injury Report

Indianapolis Colts

Will Mallory (TE): Questionable – Hamstring
Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB): Out – Knee
Mo Alie-Cox (TE): Out – Groin
Jalen Travis (OT): Out – Knee
Luke Rhodes (LS): Out – Hamstring

Miami Dolphins

Jared Wayne (WR): Out – Quadriceps
Chris Bell (WR): Doubtful – Knee
Aaron Brewer (C): Out – Concussion
Darrell Baker Jr. (CB): Out – Knee
Malik Willis (QB): Injured Reserve – Abdomen

Prediction

Colts 23, Dolphins 17. Miami's injuries at receiver and center limit its ability to cash in on a generous Indianapolis pass defense. Taylor gives the Colts the steadier offense at home, and that is enough to snap the skid, even if Jones' turnovers keep it close.