The Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on Sunday, November 15, at 1:00 p.m. ET. The game turns on Green Bay's passing attack, which throws for nearly 291 yards a game, against a Vikings pass defense that allows nearly 187. One of those numbers has to break.

The Matchup

Records: Minnesota Vikings 6-2 (road 3-1), Green Bay Packers 6-3 (home 3-1)
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): GB -3, O/U 42.5

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers tickets
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What Decides It

Green Bay's passing game against Minnesota's pass defense is the matchup that should decide it.

The Packers live through the air. Jordan Love has 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and Christian Watson has turned 49 catches into 879 yards and 7 scores. Most of Green Bay's offense comes through Love's arm.

Minnesota's defense is built to drag games into the mud. It allows fewer than 15 points a game, and it gives up well under the yardage Green Bay usually throws for. If the Vikings hold Love close to their usual standard, the Packers lose their main engine.

Green Bay cannot lean on the run, even against a defense that gives up yards on the ground.

The Packers average about 68 rushing yards a game, while the Vikings allow nearly 119. On paper that is an opening, but Green Bay's ground game sits well behind its passing attack. Kaleb Johnson leads the team with 172 yards on 42 carries.

Minnesota runs the ball better than Green Bay does, at 106 yards a game behind Aaron Jones Sr. That gives the Vikings a way to shorten the game. The Packers have to win it with Love.

Minnesota's passing game has to find a gear it has not shown.

The Vikings throw for nearly 180 yards a game, and Green Bay allows nearly 232. That is the one spot where the Packers' defense gives Minnesota room to work. The problem is who is throwing and catching.

Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring injury. Carson Wentz leads the team in passing at 31 of 64 for 357 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Jauan Jennings is out and Jordan Addison is questionable, which puts even more on Justin Jefferson. Minnesota scored 6 and 15 points in its last two games, both losses.

Players to Watch

Green Bay Packers

Passing: Jordan Love – 215-341, 2,618 YDS, 19-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Kaleb Johnson – 42 ATT, 172 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Christian Watson – 49 REC, 879 YDS, 7 TD

Minnesota Vikings

Passing: Carson Wentz – 31-64, 357 YDS, 3-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Aaron Jones Sr. – 115 ATT, 474 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Justin Jefferson – 31 REC, 393 YDS, 4 TD

Injury Report

Green Bay Packers

Out: Micah Parsons (DE, knee – ACL), Josh Whyle (TE, concussion)
Questionable: Xavier McKinney (S, foot), Kevin Zeitler (G, ankle), Travis Glover (OT, knee)

Minnesota Vikings

Out: Kyler Murray (QB, hamstring), Jauan Jennings (WR, calf), Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (DE, ankle)
Questionable: Joshua Metellus (S, shoulder), Jordan Addison (WR, thumb)

Prediction

Green Bay comes in having won two straight, scoring 45 and 27, while Minnesota has managed 6 and 15 in back-to-back losses. The Vikings' defense keeps this close, but without Murray and Jennings the offense lacks the passing punch to exploit Green Bay's pass defense. Love does enough through the air to cover the 3 points.

Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 16