The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 1, at 4:25 p.m. ET, and the favorite has won just once on the road. New England has been unbeatable at home and ordinary away from it. Miami has yet to win in its own stadium.

The Matchup

Records: New England Patriots 4-3 (home 3-0, road 1-3); Miami Dolphins 1-5 (home 0-2, road 1-3)
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Line (DraftKings): NE -7, O/U 43.5

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What Decides It

New England's road form is the best reason to doubt the spread. The Patriots are perfect at home, including a 45-17 rout and a 26-19 win in their last five games. Away from home, the picture flips: a 35-6 loss, a 29-26 escape that stands as their only road win, and a 30-24 loss last time out.

Miami is not an intimidating host. The Dolphins dropped both home games, 31-24 and 24-10. Their only win came last week, 28-25 on the road, so this is a team with some recent life but no home track record to lean on.

Miami's best path is on the ground, and it runs straight into a stingy New England run defense. The Dolphins average about 132 rushing yards a game, the one phase where their offense holds up. The Patriots allow only about 95, so something has to give, and Miami is doing it without De'Von Achane, who is on injured reserve.

Throwing is not an obvious escape hatch. Miami averages about 176 passing yards a game, well short of the 239 New England gives up through the air. If the Dolphins can't win on the ground, they lack a reliable second option, and that's why the edge goes to New England.

Drake Maye gives the Patriots the passing advantage Miami can't match. New England throws for about 261 yards a game against a Dolphins defense allowing about 236. That favors the Patriots' offense, and Miami has two cornerbacks listed as questionable.

The risk is turnovers. Maye's interception total is high for a passer this productive, and a wet ball makes that worse. If he protects it, New England should move the ball through the air more consistently than Miami can.

Players to Watch

New England Patriots

Passing: Drake Maye – 141-214, 1,784 YDS, 13-8 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson – 77 ATT, 285 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Hunter Henry – 26 REC, 296 YDS, 2 TD

Miami Dolphins

Passing: Malik Willis – 87-151, 1,057 YDS, 4-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Ollie Gordon II – 72 ATT, 339 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Malik Washington – 26 REC, 289 YDS

Injury Report

Miami Dolphins: OT Kadyn Proctor – Out (concussion); CB Reese Taylor – Questionable (quadriceps); CB JuJu Brents – Questionable (neck); RB De'Von Achane – Injured Reserve (knee, ACL); LB Ronnie Harrison Jr. – Injured Reserve (hamstring)

New England Patriots: CB Carlton Davis III – Questionable (neck); LB Christian Elliss – Questionable (chest); RB TreVeyon Henderson – Questionable (illness); WR A.J. Brown – Questionable (ankle); G Alijah Vera-Tucker – Injured Reserve (hamstring)

The Miami cornerback questions matter most, given what Maye does to pass defenses. Losing Proctor up front doesn't help a run game that has to carry the offense.

Weather

Forecast: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, 79°F, gusts to 15 mph, 65% chance of precipitation

Rain pushes both teams toward the run, which suits Miami's offense but plays into a stingy New England run defense. It also raises the stakes on ball security for Maye.

Prediction

The Patriots' road record is a real warning, but Miami's offense leans on a run game that faces a stingy New England run defense, with little passing to fall back on. These teams combine for about 39 points a game, below the total, and the weather points the same way. Patriots win, but Miami keeps it inside the number.

Pick: New England Patriots 23, Miami Dolphins 17