If the season ended today, the Carolina Panthers would host a playoff game at 3-5. They hold the NFC's No. 4 seed despite losing 3 straight, and the 6-2 Detroit Lions would have to visit them as a wild card.

AFC Playoff Picture

1. Buffalo Bills (7-1) – AFC East leader, first-round bye
2. Denver Broncos (7-2) – AFC West leader
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) – AFC South leader
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) – AFC North leader
5. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) – wild card
6. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) – wild card
7. New England Patriots (5-4) – wild card

The Buffalo Bills hold the AFC's only bye, half a game ahead of the Denver Broncos. Denver has won 5 straight but sits on a bye this week, so a Bills win at the New York Jets on Sunday stretches that cushion.

The AFC North is the race to watch. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals are both 6-2, both on 4-game winning streaks, and separated only by tiebreakers. They meet Sunday night in Cincinnati, and the winner leaves with the division lead outright.

The stakes run past the division. Today the Bengals are a wild card, which means a trip to Jacksonville as the No. 6 seed instead of a home game. Flip that result and Pittsburgh is the team packing for the road.

Out West, the Kansas City Chiefs trail Denver by half a game and would open as the No. 5 seed at Pittsburgh. Their 6-1 conference record gives them the most conference wins in the AFC field, a useful asset if the tiebreakers come into play.

The last spot belongs to the New England Patriots, but it is the shakiest seed in the conference. The Cleveland Browns match their 5-4 record and sit outside only on tiebreakers. A Browns win and a Patriots loss this week would flip that line on record alone.

NFC Playoff Picture

1. San Francisco 49ers (7-1) – NFC West leader, first-round bye
2. Chicago Bears (7-2) – NFC North leader
3. New York Giants (5-2-1) – NFC East leader
4. Carolina Panthers (3-5) – NFC South leader
5. Detroit Lions (6-2) – wild card
6. Minnesota Vikings (6-2) – wild card
7. Green Bay Packers (6-3) – wild card

The San Francisco 49ers hold the NFC's bye, half a game clear of the Chicago Bears. The Bears are idle this week, so the 49ers can open up more room with a win at the Dallas Cowboys.

The Panthers' record is the worst in either conference's field, and it would still earn a home game. Nobody in the NFC South is above .500: the New Orleans Saints are also 3-5 and trail only on tiebreakers, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons sit half a game back. Carolina visits New Orleans on Sunday, so the division lead changes hands with a Saints win.

The cost of that weak division lands on the NFC North. The Bears lead it despite an 0-2 division record, with the Lions and Minnesota Vikings half a game back and the Green Bay Packers a game behind. Every one of them is in the field today.

That is the strongest case that the bracket is lopsided. The Lions and Vikings are both 6-2, and both would open on the road, the Lions at 3-5 Carolina and the Vikings at the 5-2-1 New York Giants.

Form inside the division is split. The Lions and Bears have each won 4 straight, the Packers have won 2 in a row, and the Vikings have dropped 2 straight heading into their trip to Green Bay.

The Giants lead the NFC East by 2 games over Dallas and open the week Thursday at home against the Washington Commanders. Green Bay holds the last spot at 6-3, a game ahead of the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams.

In the Hunt

AFC

Cleveland Browns (5-4): tied on record with No. 7, behind on tiebreakers
Las Vegas Raiders (4-5): 1 game back
Baltimore Ravens (4-5): 1 game back
Houston Texans (3-5): 1.5 games back

The Browns are the clear first team out and control their own path this week at home. The Ravens host the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday, November 16, with the Chargers still winless at 0-8.

NFC

Seattle Seahawks (5-4): 1 game back
Los Angeles Rams (5-4): 1 game back
Dallas Cowboys (4-5): 2 games back

The Rams visit the Arizona Cardinals, who are 3-6. Seattle and Los Angeles both trail the 49ers by 2.5 games in the NFC West, so the wild card is their realistic route in.

Games That Move the Race This Week

Six games on Sunday, November 15, match two teams in the race.

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, Fox
The AFC's No. 7 seed visits the NFC's No. 5. New England goes in on a loss and with a tiebreaker as its only edge over Cleveland.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fox
Cleveland can apply direct pressure on the last AFC spot. Houston, 1.5 games back of No. 7, needs it just as badly.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fox
The NFC's No. 6 seed visits No. 7. A Packers loss would let Seattle or the Rams pull level on record with a win.

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Both teams sit 1 game back of their conference's No. 7 seed. The loser drifts further from the bubble.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers are protecting the bye with the Bears idle. Dallas trails the Giants by 2 games in the East and is 2 back of the last wild card, so this one matters more to the Cowboys.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The game of the week. The winner takes the AFC North lead outright, and with it a home playoff game if the season ended the next morning.