The formula's most confident pick of Week 10 is the Jacksonville Jaguars by nearly 9 points at the Tennessee Titans. Its best bet against the spread is the Arizona Cardinals plus the points at home against the Los Angeles Rams.
How the picks are made: by a formula, not a hunch. Each team's rating is its point differential per game this season. The projected margin is half the difference between the two ratings, plus 1.5 points for the home team, with none added at a neutral site. The pick is the team the projection favors. Against the spread, it is the side the projection beats the line for. Lines are DraftKings' where posted.
Best Bets Against the Spread
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams: The projection beats this line by nearly 5 points, the widest gap of the week. Los Angeles is 5-4 with a +3.7 rating, while Arizona is 3-6 at -8.6. That is a clear gap, but halving it and crediting Arizona for playing at home leaves the Rams favored by well short of what the line asks.
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks: The edge here is about 4 points. Seattle is 5-4 with a +4.4 rating and Las Vegas is 4-5 at -3.3. The formula makes the Seahawks a road favorite by fewer than 3 points, and a line well beyond that is too steep.
New York Jets +8.5 vs. Buffalo Bills: The edge is more than 3 points. Buffalo is 7-1 with a +8.6 rating and the Jets are 2-7 at -4.6, so the formula has no doubt about the winner. The question is the margin: the projection has the Bills about 5 points better on the road, well short of what the line demands.
Every Week 10 Game
The formula sides with the betting favorite in every game this week, so there are no upset picks. The disagreements with the market are all about margin.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Kickoff: Thursday, November 12, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Line: NYG -2.5, O/U 40.5
Projection: New York Giants by 4.0
Pick: New York Giants
Against the spread: New York Giants -2.5
The 5-2-1 Giants rate at +1.3, well above the 2-5-1 Commanders at -3.8. Add the home edge and the projection clears the line, making New York one of the few favorites the formula backs against the spread.
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 9:30 a.m. ET, Fox
Line: DET -2.5, O/U 51.5
Projection: Detroit Lions by 1.8
Pick: Detroit Lions
Against the spread: New England Patriots +2.5
Detroit's +4.1 rating is well clear of New England's +0.4, so the Lions are the pick. The projected margin falls short of the line, so the Patriots get the nod with the points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: KC -3, O/U 46.5
Projection: Kansas City Chiefs by 4.1
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Against the spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3
The 6-2 Chiefs rate at +7.4 against -3.9 for the 3-6 Falcons, a wide gap that survives Atlanta's home edge. The projection clears the line, so the formula lays the points.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fox
Line: HOU -4.5, O/U 41.5
Projection: Houston Texans by 1.5
Pick: Houston Texans
Against the spread: Cleveland Browns +4.5
Records and ratings disagree here: Cleveland is 5-4 and Houston 3-5, but the Texans' +2.1 rating sits well above the Browns' -3.9. The projection still makes Houston only a small road favorite, so Cleveland gets the points.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fox
Line: GB -3, O/U 42.5
Projection: Green Bay Packers by 1.0
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Against the spread: Minnesota Vikings +3
The 6-2 Vikings carry the better record and the better rating, +3.8 to +2.8 for the 6-3 Packers. Green Bay's home edge is enough to make it the pick but not enough to cover, so Minnesota takes the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fox
Line: JAX -10.5, O/U 46.5
Projection: Jacksonville Jaguars by 8.7
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Against the spread: Tennessee Titans +10.5
The 6-2 Jaguars own the highest rating on the slate at +13.5, against -6.9 for the 1-7 Titans. Even so, the line runs past the formula's surest projection, so Tennessee is the side against the spread.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: IND -3.5, O/U 38.5
Projection: Indianapolis Colts by 2.5
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Against the spread: Miami Dolphins +3.5
Miami is 1-7 at -9.3 and Indianapolis is 2-7 at -7.2. The Colts rate slightly better and play at home, but the projection stays inside the line, so the Dolphins get the points.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fox
Line: NO -2.5, O/U 48.5
Projection: New Orleans Saints by 0.8
Pick: New Orleans Saints
Against the spread: Carolina Panthers +2.5
This is the closest projection of the week. Both teams are 3-5, and Carolina actually rates better, -2.5 to -3.9, so the home edge alone tips the pick to New Orleans. With the line wider than the projection, the Panthers are the side.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: BUF -8.5, O/U 50.5
Projection: Buffalo Bills by 5.1
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Against the spread: New York Jets +8.5
The Bills are a clear pick on rating and record. The line simply asks for more margin than the formula sees, which makes the Jets one of the week's best bets.
Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: SEA -6.5, O/U 40.5
Projection: Seattle Seahawks by 2.4
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Against the spread: Las Vegas Raiders +6.5
Seattle rates as the better team, but halving the gap and adding the Raiders' home edge trims the projection to a narrow win. That leaves plenty of room for Las Vegas to cover.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: LAR -9.5, O/U 39.5
Projection: Los Angeles Rams by 4.6
Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Against the spread: Arizona Cardinals +9.5
The Rams should win, by the formula's reckoning. The line prices them as a far bigger favorite than their rating supports, which is why Arizona is the top play of the week.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Line: SF -3.5, O/U 55.5
Projection: San Francisco 49ers by 2.9
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Against the spread: Dallas Cowboys +3.5
San Francisco is 7-1 with a +9.9 rating, while Dallas is 4-5 but still rates positive at +1.1. With the Cowboys' home edge, that keeps the projection just under the line, so Dallas gets the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Line: CIN -3.5, O/U 49.5
Projection: Cincinnati Bengals by 3.3
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Against the spread: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
Both teams are 6-2, but Cincinnati's +8.1 rating is well ahead of Pittsburgh's +4.5, and the Bengals are at home. The projection lands a hair under the line, the thinnest spread edge of the week, so the Steelers get the points.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Kickoff: Monday, November 16, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: BAL -4.5, O/U 38.5
Projection: Baltimore Ravens by 5.0
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Against the spread: Baltimore Ravens -4.5
The winless Chargers carry the lowest rating on the slate at -12.3, against -5.2 for the 4-5 Ravens. Add the home edge and the projection edges past the line, so the formula lays the points with Baltimore.
These picks come from a formula and are for entertainment, not betting advice.