The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Sunday night, with both teams 6-2 and riding identical win streaks. The matchup that should decide it is Cincinnati's passing game, which throws for 298 yards a game against a Pittsburgh defense that allows 242 through the air.

The Matchup

Records: Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2 (home 4-0, road 2-2); Cincinnati Bengals 6-2 (home 2-1, road 4-1)
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Line: CIN -3.5, O/U 49.5 (DraftKings)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals tickets
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What Decides It

Joe Burrow against the Pittsburgh pass defense is the matchup that should decide it. Cincinnati throws for more yards a game than Pittsburgh typically allows through the air, and that edge belongs to the Bengals. Burrow has 23 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions, and Tee Higgins has 758 receiving yards with 6 scores.

The ground game won't tip it for Cincinnati. The Bengals run for 86 yards a game and Pittsburgh allows 84, which is a stalemate. Pittsburgh gives up far more through the air than on the ground, so the burden sits squarely on Burrow, and that is where Cincinnati's offense is strongest anyway.

Pittsburgh's best answer is Jaylen Warren. Cincinnati's run defense allows 127 yards a game, well above the 84 that Pittsburgh's run defense gives up. The Steelers run for 118 yards a game, and Warren has 704 yards on 119 carries.

A steady night on the ground is also the cleanest way to keep Burrow on the sideline. If Pittsburgh falls behind and has to throw, the game moves toward Cincinnati's strength.

Pittsburgh's perfect home record does not travel with it. The Steelers are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. Their last two wins both came at home, holding opponents to 6 and 10 points. Their two most recent road games were a 26-19 overtime win and a 24-27 loss.

Cincinnati's split runs the other way, at 4-1 on the road and 2-1 at home. The Bengals did win their last two at home, though, scoring 34 and 43 points.

The market expects a tighter game than the season scoring suggests. These teams combine for 52.5 points a game, and the total sits at 49.5. Pittsburgh allows 18 points a game, fewer than Cincinnati's 22, and that defense is a fair reason to expect less scoring. The trim looks right.

Players to Watch

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing: Joe Burrow – 219-296, 2,386 YDS, 23-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Chase Brown – 103 ATT, 397 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Tee Higgins – 48 REC, 758 YDS, 6 TD

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing: Aaron Rodgers – 175-288, 1,871 YDS, 13-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jaylen Warren – 119 ATT, 704 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: DK Metcalf – 33 REC, 378 YDS, 1 TD

Injury Report

Cincinnati Bengals

Kyle Dugger (S): Out – Quadriceps
Andrei Iosivas (WR): Injured Reserve – Thumb
Brian Parker II (OT): Injured Reserve – Knee
Jalen Davis (CB): Injured Reserve – Hamstring
Cashius Howell (DE): Injured Reserve – Wrist

Pittsburgh Steelers

Derrick Harmon (DT): Injured Reserve – Foot
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR): Injured Reserve – Foot
Sebastian Joseph-Day (DT): Injured Reserve – Triceps
Roman Wilson (WR): Injured Reserve – Finger
Gennings Dunker (G): Injured Reserve – Knee

Prediction

Cincinnati wins, 27-20. Warren should find room against a run defense that allows 127 yards a game, but Pittsburgh's 2-2 road record says this is not the same team that has been unbeatable at home. Burrow's edge through the air should be the difference, and that is enough to cover the 3.5 while the game stays under 49.5.