The San Francisco 49ers visit the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, and home field has done Dallas little good this season. The Cowboys have won more often on the road than in Arlington. That leaves the favored 49ers with one less obstacle in a game where Dallas needs every edge it can find.
The Matchup
Records: San Francisco 49ers 7-1 (5-0 home, 2-1 road); Dallas Cowboys 4-5 (1-3 home, 3-2 road)
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (indoor)
Kickoff: Sunday, November 15, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): 49ers -4.5, O/U 55.5
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys tickets
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What Decides It
Playing at home has not helped Dallas, and that tilts this one further toward San Francisco. The Cowboys have one home win all season. Their last two games in Arlington were both losses: 33-30 in overtime on November 1 and 24-16 on October 9.
On the road, the picture flips. Dallas won its most recent game 27-23 away from home on November 8 and beat its opponent 38-21 on the road in late October. Whatever is working for this team has not traveled back to AT&T Stadium.
Dallas's best path runs through the air, against a secondary that may be shorthanded. The Cowboys throw for nearly 265 yards a game, and the 49ers allow about 223 through the air. Dallas's passing attack produces more than this defense usually gives up, and that is where the Cowboys have to win.
The injury report sharpens the point. San Francisco cornerbacks Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir are both questionable, as is linebacker Dre Greenlaw. If those absences stack up, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb get a softer coverage unit to attack.
San Francisco's run game meets a Dallas run defense that gives up more than the 49ers usually gain. San Francisco runs for about 135 yards a game, and Dallas allows about 147 on the ground. That points to a long day for Christian McCaffrey.
The other side of that ledger favors San Francisco too. Dallas runs for about 104 yards a game against a 49ers defense allowing about 81. If the Cowboys cannot lean on Javonte Williams, the whole game lands on Prescott's arm. Keep an eye on 49ers tackle Trent Williams, questionable with a shoulder injury.
Players to Watch
San Francisco 49ers
Passing: Brock Purdy – 163-236, 1,980 YDS, 17-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Christian McCaffrey – 102 ATT, 457 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: George Kittle – 38 REC, 483 YDS, 5 TD
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: Dak Prescott – 218-336, 2,381 YDS, 16-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Javonte Williams – 154 ATT, 629 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: CeeDee Lamb – 70 REC, 904 YDS, 7 TD
Injury Report
San Francisco 49ers
Mike Evans (WR): Out – Achilles
Trent Williams (OT): Questionable – Shoulder
Renardo Green (CB): Questionable – Back
Deommodore Lenoir (CB): Questionable – Foot
Dre Greenlaw (LB): Questionable – Knee
Dallas Cowboys
Donovan Ezeiruaku (LB): Out – Ankle
Jonathan Mingo (WR): Out – Ankle
Juanyeh Thomas (S): Doubtful – Ribs
Joey Porter Jr. (CB): Questionable – Ankle
DaRon Bland (CB): Questionable – Ankle
Prediction
Dallas should move the ball through the air, but San Francisco holds the edge on the ground on both sides of the ball. Dallas allows more than 26 points a game, and its own ground game is unlikely to keep McCaffrey off the field. The 49ers win and cover, 31-24.