The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday night at Soldier Field in a game that runs straight through the line of scrimmage. Both offenses pile up rushing yards, and both defenses give up few of them. Chicago brings a 3-game winning streak, and Tampa Bay has won its last 2.
The Matchup
Records: Buccaneers 3-5 (2-1 road), Bears 6-2 (3-1 home)
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Line (DraftKings): CHI -6, O/U 47.5
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What Decides It
Tampa Bay's offense lives on the ground, and Chicago's run defense is the wall it has to get through.
The Buccaneers run for nearly 169 yards a game, more than they gain through the air. Bucky Irving is the engine, and Tampa Bay throws for under 150 yards a game, so the passing game has not been a reliable fallback.
Chicago allows about 87 rushing yards a game, roughly half of what the Buccaneers produce. If the Bears hold Irving well under his usual output, Tampa Bay has to win this through the air, which is not how its offense has worked.
Chicago faces the same wall, but it has more ways around it.
The Bears run for about 151 yards a game against a Tampa Bay defense allowing 80, the stingier of the two run defenses in this game. D'Andre Swift has turned his work into 10 rushing touchdowns, so the Bears will keep testing it near the goal line.
The difference is everything else. Chicago averages about 405 yards a game to Tampa Bay's 316, and most of that gap comes through the air.
Caleb Williams against the Tampa Bay pass defense is where the Bears should find their edge.
Chicago throws for about 254 yards a game, and the Buccaneers allow 220 through the air, far more than they give up on the ground. Williams has thrown 6 touchdowns and 1 interception, and Luther Burden III gives him a productive target.
Tampa Bay also has cornerback Josh Hayes on injured reserve. Chicago's pass defense allows nearly 235 yards a game, so Baker Mayfield will have room, but his production so far gives little reason to expect a shootout from his side.
Both teams arrive in form, and Tampa Bay has been better away from home.
Chicago has scored at least 30 points in each of its 3 straight wins. Tampa Bay won its last two by 16-0 and 43-13, and it is 2-1 on the road against 1-4 at home, so Soldier Field is not the obstacle it might look like.
Players to Watch
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: Baker Mayfield – 68-110, 679 YDS, 3-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Bucky Irving – 147 ATT, 728 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Chris Godwin Jr. – 27 REC, 243 YDS
Chicago Bears
Passing: Caleb Williams – 112-158, 1267 YDS, 6-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: D'Andre Swift – 143 ATT, 545 YDS, 10 TD
Receiving: Luther Burden III – 42 REC, 547 YDS, 3 TD
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka (WR): Questionable – Foot
Yaya Diaby (LB): Out – Knee (MCL)
Jalen McMillan (WR): Injured Reserve – Knee (PCL)
Josh Hayes (CB): Injured Reserve – Knee
Christian Rozeboom (LB): Injured Reserve – Finger
Chicago Bears
Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB): Questionable – Thumb
Malik Muhammad II (CB): Questionable – Toe
Kyle Monangai (RB): Questionable – Toe
Zavier Scott (RB): Injured Reserve – Wrist
Kentavius Street (DT): Injured Reserve – Knee
Chicago has two cornerbacks listed as questionable, which is worth watching if Tampa Bay is forced to throw. The Buccaneers have Egbuka questionable with McMillan already on injured reserve.
Weather
Conditions: Clear, 50°F, gusts to 17 mph, 0% precipitation
The wind is the one condition worth tracking, and it matters most to the team that needs its passing game more.
Prediction
Bears 27, Buccaneers 20. Both run defenses should blunt the opposing ground game, which leaves the game to the passing attacks, and Chicago's is far more productive. Tampa Bay's road form keeps it close, but Williams and Burden give the Bears the separation Tampa Bay cannot match.