No. 14 LSU hosts No. 5 Alabama at Tiger Stadium on Saturday, November 7, at 3:30 p.m. ET, and the Tigers carry the stronger defense into it. LSU allows 16 points a game while scoring about 40. Alabama has not scored more than 31 in any of its last three games.
The Matchup
Alabama Crimson Tide: 6-2 (4-1 home), No. 5
LSU Tigers: 6-2 (5-0 home), No. 14
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Line (DraftKings): LSU -6, O/U 52.5
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What Decides It
LSU's defense has been clearly stingier than Alabama's, and it has been at its best at home. The Tigers allow 16 points and about 258 yards a game. Alabama gives up about 21 points and 330 yards.
In the three home games among LSU's last five, opponents scored 6, 14 and 0. Tiger Stadium has been a hard place to put up points this year.
LSU's ground game is the matchup that should decide it. The Tigers run for 192 yards a game against an Alabama defense that allows 108. Dilin Jones leads that attack with 657 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Loading up against the run carries a cost for Alabama. LSU also throws for 318 yards a game, and the Crimson Tide allow about 222 through the air. Sam Leavitt and Jackson Harris give the Tigers a second way to move the ball if the run stalls.
Alabama has to win through the air, and LSU has not given up much there. The Crimson Tide throw for 260 yards a game, but the Tigers allow about 173. Keelon Russell has 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, a cleaner ratio than Leavitt's.
The concern is recent form. Alabama scored 10 and 17 in back-to-back losses in mid-October before a 31-20 home win last time out.
The total says defense, and the recent scores back it up. These offenses average about 78 points combined, well above the posted total. The market is betting on the defenses, and LSU held its last two opponents to 17 and 0.
Players to Watch
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: Keelon Russell – 148-221, 2,057 YDS, 15-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Daniel Hill – 71 ATT, 332 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Lotzeir Brooks – 29 REC, 488 YDS, 1 TD
Brooks is Alabama's receiving leader. The Crimson Tide need him to find space against the stingier of the two pass defenses in this game.
LSU Tigers
Passing: Sam Leavitt – 180-256, 2,173 YDS, 17-8 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Dilin Jones – 149 ATT, 657 YDS, 6 TD
Receiving: Jackson Harris – 36 REC, 634 YDS, 7 TD
Harris is LSU's receiving leader and has turned his catches into 7 touchdowns. Leavitt's 8 interceptions are the one number Alabama's defense can hope to exploit.
Prediction
LSU wins 27-20 and covers the 6. The Tigers have the better run game, the better defense and a perfect home record, while Alabama scored 10 and 17 in two of its last three games. Expect the game to stay under the 52.5 total.