No. 8 BYU hosts Arizona State at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday, and the Cougars' rushing attack should decide it. BYU runs for nearly 194 yards a game, about 47 more than the Sun Devils allow. The Cougars are unbeaten at home but enter off their first loss, a 39-31 defeat on the road last week.

The Matchup

Records: Arizona State 4-3 (3-1 home); BYU 6-1 (4-0 home)
Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line: BYU -16.5, O/U 48.5

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What Decides It

BYU should control this game on the ground. Arizona State allows about 146 rushing yards a game, well short of what BYU's offense produces. That is a matchup tilted heavily toward the home team before kickoff.

It also fits how BYU wins. The Cougars average 33 points a game, and a run game that big lets them shorten the game and keep the Sun Devils' passing attack on the sideline.

Arizona State's best path to an upset is through the air. The Sun Devils throw for about 267 yards a game, while BYU's pass defense gives up about 203. That gap is the opening Arizona State has to exploit.

Cutter Boley has 13 touchdown passes, and Reed Harris has turned 47 catches into 800 yards. If the Sun Devils are going to stay inside the number, it happens with Boley pushing the ball to Harris.

The total looks low against these offenses, but BYU's defense explains why. These teams combine for 64 points a game, about 16 more than the 48.5 total. The market is betting on the Cougars' defense, which allows fewer than 19 points a game.

The recent results are mixed. BYU allowed 24 or fewer points in each of its four wins over the last five games, but its lone loss in that stretch was a shootout. Arizona State allows nearly 30 points a game and gave up 53 and 55 in its two losses over that stretch. If BYU scores at its usual rate, the over is in play.

Players to Watch

Arizona State Sun Devils

Passing: Cutter Boley – 105-173, 1,360 YDS, 13-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Cardae Mack – 55 ATT, 400 YDS, 6 TD
Receiving: Reed Harris – 47 REC, 800 YDS, 8 TD

Harris is the player BYU has to account for. Mack has 6 rushing touchdowns, but he faces a Cougars defense allowing about 98 rushing yards a game, well below the Sun Devils' usual output on the ground.

BYU Cougars

Passing: Bear Bachmeier – 116-184, 1,514 YDS, 11-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: LJ Martin – 44 ATT, 344 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Legend Glasker – 28 REC, 498 YDS, 4 TD

Bachmeier has 11 touchdown passes against 3 interceptions, so he takes care of the ball. Martin leads the backfield that should do most of the damage.

Prediction

BYU wins, but Arizona State keeps it inside the spread. The Cougars' run game and perfect home record make them the clear pick, and the Sun Devils' defense should give up points. Boley and Harris move the ball enough through the air to keep the final margin under three scores and push the total over.

Pick: BYU 34, Arizona State 20