Army takes its ground game to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Saturday, October 31, at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Black Knights average nearly 346 rushing yards a game, roughly double what the Tigers usually allow.
The Matchup
Records: Army Black Knights 5-2; Memphis Tigers 6-2 (4-0 at home)
Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Line (DraftKings): Memphis -6, O/U 59.5
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What Decides It
Army's run game should move the ball on Memphis. The Tigers give up about 171 rushing yards a game, and Army's offense is built almost entirely on the ground. That is a clear edge for the Black Knights in the phase they care about most.
Cale Hellums is the engine. He has 840 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on 159 carries, and he is also the team's passing leader. Army throws for only about 75 yards a game, so the Memphis pass defense, allowing about 207, will barely be tested.
Memphis can answer in more than one way. The Tigers run for nearly 228 yards a game against an Army defense allowing 148. They also throw for about 281 against a Black Knights pass defense giving up 226. Memphis beats Army's defensive averages on both sides of its offense.
That balance is the difference between these attacks. Army has one plan, and it works. Memphis averages about 508 total yards a game to Army's 421, and it can lean on Marcus Stokes and the passing game if the run stalls.
The total sits well below what these offenses usually produce. Memphis scores 36 points a game and Army 35, a combined pace of about 71. The market has the total just under 60, nearly 12 points below that rate.
Some recent results fit that pace. Army's last two wins were 38-35 and 56-24, and Memphis needed overtime to win 41-34 last time out.
Players to Watch
Army Black Knights
Passing: Cale Hellums – 39-69, 422 YDS, 3-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Cale Hellums – 159 ATT, 840 YDS, 16 TD
Receiving: Samari Howard – 11 REC, 116 YDS
Memphis Tigers
Passing: Marcus Stokes – 150-224, 2161 YDS, 21-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jaylin Carter – 128 ATT, 833 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Hunter Tipton – 30 REC, 409 YDS, 5 TD
Stokes has thrown 21 touchdowns against 6 interceptions, and Tipton is his top target. Carter's rushing yardage comes close to Hellums' total, though with half the touchdowns.
Weather
Conditions: Showers, 69°F, gusts 13 mph, 51% chance of precipitation
Rain cuts against the Memphis passing game more than it does against Army, which barely throws. A wet ball also makes the Tigers more likely to lean on Carter, and that plays into the hands of an Army defense that is better against the run than Memphis is.
Prediction
Memphis is 4-0 at home and has more ways to move the ball, which is enough to win. Army has won 3 straight, and Hellums should find room on the ground, so this stays close. Memphis wins, but Army covers the 6 points and the showers keep it just under the total.