No. 25 Boise State visits Colorado State on Saturday at Canvas Stadium, and the game should turn on the Rams' run defense. Colorado State gives up about 261 rushing yards a game. Boise State runs for nearly 223, and that is the matchup to watch.

The Matchup

Records: Boise State Broncos 7-1; Colorado State Rams 3-5 (3-2 at home)
Venue: Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 6:00 p.m. ET
TV: USA Net
Line (DraftKings): Boise State -17.5, O/U 68.5

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What Decides It

Boise State should be able to run the ball whenever it wants. Colorado State allows more rushing yards per game than Boise State gains on the ground, which tilts this matchup heavily toward the visitors. Dylan Riley has run for 1,049 yards and 9 touchdowns.

The broader defensive picture for the Rams is no better. They allow about 42 points and about 526 yards a game, and Boise State averages nearly 36 points. If the Broncos stay on schedule with Riley, Colorado State will spend the night chasing.

Colorado State's path runs through the air, not on the ground. The Rams run for about 165 yards a game, but Boise State holds opponents to about 100 on the ground. That is a direct strength-on-strength clash, and the edge goes to the Broncos' front.

The opening is in the passing game. Colorado State throws for about 271 yards a game, and Boise State allows about 261 through the air. Hauss Hejny has thrown 14 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, so if the Rams keep pace, it will be his arm doing it.

Form points one way. Boise State has won at least 5 straight, though the most recent was a 46-45 escape at home. That result suggests the Broncos can be pulled into a shootout.

Colorado State has lost four of its last five, with the lone win a 56-49 home game. The Rams gave up 31, 49, 66, 56 and 59 points across those five games. A defense on that run is hard to trust against an offense that scores the way Boise State does.

Players to Watch

Boise State Broncos

Passing: Maddux Madsen – 148-222, 1,681 YDS, 15-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Dylan Riley – 165 ATT, 1,049 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: Rasean Jones – 38 REC, 554 YDS, 4 TD

Madsen has thrown 15 touchdowns and 1 interception, so Boise State rarely gives the ball away through the air. Riley is the engine against a defense that has struggled to stop the run.

Colorado State Rams

Passing: Hauss Hejny – 90-134, 1,138 YDS, 14-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Mel Brown – 52 ATT, 454 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: RJ Vick – 29 REC, 425 YDS, 4 TD

The Rams' best route to points likely runs through Hejny and RJ Vick. Mel Brown has been productive on 52 carries, but he faces a Boise State run defense allowing about 100 yards a game.

Prediction

Boise State's ground game against Colorado State's run defense favors the Broncos, and Riley should carry the load. Colorado State can score through the air, enough to make it uncomfortable, but not enough to keep pace for four quarters. Boise State wins, Colorado State keeps it inside the number.