The Boston College Eagles visit the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 31, at noon ET on the CW. The game turns on one collision: a BC offense that runs for 181 yards a game against a Duke run defense giving up about 107.
The Matchup
Boston College: 4-3
Duke: 5-2 (home 3-1)
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: CW
Line (DraftKings): Duke -7, O/U 48.5
Duke Blue Devils tickets
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What Decides It
Boston College's ground game runs straight into a stingy Duke run defense. The Eagles average 181 rushing yards a game, and Duke allows roughly 107. That is a gap of nearly 74 yards, and one of those numbers has to give on Saturday.
The pressure falls on Mason McKenzie, who leads BC in both passing and rushing. He has 614 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. If Duke takes that away, he has to win through the air, where he has thrown 8 touchdowns against 7 interceptions.
Duke has the edge in scoring at both ends of the field. The Blue Devils score nearly 30 points a game while allowing 16. Boston College is close to break-even, scoring about 24 and allowing about 24.
The yardage tells the same story. Duke gives up about 301 yards a game to BC's 333, so the Eagles are facing a tighter defense than the one they bring.
Duke's offense has room to work in both phases. The Blue Devils throw for about 236 yards a game, and BC allows about 182 through the air. Walker Eget has protected the ball well, with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
The run game backs it up. Duke rushes for about 190 yards a game against a BC defense allowing about 151, and Nate Sheppard has 875 yards and 9 touchdowns. BC cannot sell out against one phase without exposing the other.
The caveat is Duke's recent form. The Blue Devils' last three games were all one-score finishes, including a 24-20 home loss and a 19-16 road win last week. Boston College arrives on a two-game winning streak, the latest a 49-27 road win.
Players to Watch
Boston College Eagles
Passing: Mason McKenzie – 107-185, 1,363 YDS, 8-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Mason McKenzie – 119 ATT, 614 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Javarius Green – 26 REC, 286 YDS, 1 TD
McKenzie carries the heaviest load as BC's leader in both passing and rushing. Green is his top target, but the Eagles need McKenzie's legs to keep Duke honest.
Duke Blue Devils
Passing: Walker Eget – 122-197, 1,440 YDS, 8-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Nate Sheppard – 153 ATT, 875 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: Jonah Burton – 21 REC, 298 YDS, 1 TD
Sheppard is the volume back and the touchdown threat. Eget and Burton give Duke a passing game that can punish a BC defense crowding the line.
Prediction
Duke wins this at home. The Blue Devils' run defense allows far fewer yards than Boston College usually gains on the ground, and slowing that attack pushes McKenzie toward a passing game that has turned the ball over too often. The market prices in less scoring than these teams' season averages suggest, and Duke's defense makes that the right lean.
Pick: Duke 27, Boston College 20