Florida State hosts Clemson at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, October 31, at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Seminoles run the ball better than Clemson usually allows. Clemson's passing attack looks poorly built to punish a Florida State pass defense that gives up yards in bulk.

The Matchup

Clemson Tigers: 4-3 (3-2 home)
Florida State Seminoles: 3-4 (3-1 home)
Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Line (DraftKings): FSU -6, O/U 49.5

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What Decides It

Florida State's run game should find room against Clemson. The Seminoles rush for about 180 yards a game, and Clemson's defense allows about 131. That leaves Florida State gaining roughly 49 more yards on the ground than Clemson typically gives up.

Ousmane Kromah is the engine, with 609 yards and 5 touchdowns. If he gets Florida State ahead of the chains, Ashton Daniels gets easier throws.

Clemson can't count on its passing game to exploit Florida State's leaky secondary. Florida State allows about 256 passing yards a game. Clemson throws for nearly 183, well short of what this defense usually surrenders, so the opening is real but Clemson hasn't shown it can take it.

Tait Reynolds has 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions on the season. Clemson's better bet is Gideon Davidson, because Florida State's run defense also gives up more yards than Clemson normally gains on the ground. Leaning on Davidson keeps the ball away from an offense that averages more than 31 points a game.

The total looks low for these two teams. Florida State and Clemson combine for 53 points a game, and the market has set the number at 49.5. Two of Florida State's last three road games were shootouts: a 50-36 loss and a 43-35 loss.

Clemson has played lower-scoring games, most recently a 20-16 home loss. Even so, Florida State's defense gives up nearly 28 points a game, more than Clemson's usual output. That gives the Tigers a path to a better-than-normal scoring night.

Players to Watch

Clemson Tigers

Passing: Tait Reynolds – 120-180, 1,096 YDS, 1-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Gideon Davidson – 93 ATT, 492 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Bryant Wesco Jr. – 34 REC, 378 YDS

Florida State Seminoles

Passing: Ashton Daniels – 106-181, 1,618 YDS, 12-8 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Ousmane Kromah – 114 ATT, 609 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Duce Robinson – 22 REC, 407 YDS, 4 TD

Weather

Conditions: Cloudy, 74°F, gusts 17 mph, 38% chance of precipitation

Gusts and a chance of rain favor the team that can run. Both offenses average more than 150 rushing yards a game, but wind does the most damage to the thinner passing game, and that is Clemson's.

Prediction

Florida State is back home after two straight road losses, and its run game should control this one. Clemson's defense keeps it close for a half, but an offense with 1 passing touchdown from its leader can't keep pace once Kromah gets going. Florida State covers, and the game edges over the total: Florida State 31, Clemson 21.