Syracuse hosts Clemson at the JMA Wireless Dome on Saturday, and the matchup that should decide it is the Orange passing game against the Tigers' pass defense. Syracuse throws for about 275 yards a game, while Clemson allows about 206. Umari Hatcher is the reason that gap matters.

The Matchup

Away: Clemson Tigers (5-3, 3-2 home)
Home: Syracuse Orange (4-4, 2-2 home)
Venue: JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY (indoor)
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Line (DraftKings): CLEM -2.5, O/U 49.5

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What Decides It

Syracuse's air attack is the matchup that should swing this game. The Orange pass for well more than Clemson usually gives up through the air. If Syracuse simply plays to its season average, the Tigers' pass defense is facing a heavier load than it typically handles.

Hatcher is the focal point. He has 60 catches and 8 touchdown receptions, which makes him the player Clemson has to account for on every snap. Steve Angeli has thrown 7 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, so the Orange will take some risk to get Hatcher the ball.

Clemson's best answer is to run the ball at Syracuse. The Tigers rush for 152 yards a game, and the Syracuse defense allows nearly 126. That is Clemson's clearest edge on offense, and Gideon Davidson carries it with 528 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns.

The Tigers need that ground game to land. Tait Reynolds has thrown 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, so the passing game has not been a dependable source of points. A steady run game also keeps Syracuse's offense on the sideline, which may be Clemson's best defense against Hatcher.

The 49.5 total looks low for these two offenses. Syracuse scores about 31 points a game and Clemson about 23, a combined season rate near 55. The Orange defense also allows about 26 points a game, so Clemson has room to add to its usual output.

Syracuse's recent games back that up. Its last five finished 30-27, 31-30 in overtime, 26-34, 25-28 and 42-41 in overtime, every one of them a one-score game. Clemson has been more erratic, with a 37-0 win and a 13-41 loss in its last five, but it scored 36 in its most recent game.

Players to Watch

Clemson Tigers

Passing: Tait Reynolds – 138-212, 1,285 YDS, 3-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Gideon Davidson – 105 ATT, 528 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Bryant Wesco Jr. – 38 REC, 411 YDS

Syracuse Orange

Passing: Steve Angeli – 98-172, 1,187 YDS, 7-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Tylik Hill – 98 ATT, 515 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Umari Hatcher – 60 REC, 952 YDS, 8 TD

Prediction

Syracuse 31, Clemson 27. The Orange have the bigger mismatch in the passing game, and Hatcher gives them a finisher Clemson's offense cannot match through the air. Syracuse has lived in close games, and at home, with the line this tight, the edge goes to the Orange in another one-score finish that clears the total.