Georgia State hosts Coastal Carolina at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday, with kickoff at 2 p.m. ET. The total sits well below what these offenses have produced, and gusty wind adds a wrinkle to Coastal Carolina's best matchup.

The Matchup

Away: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (2-5, 1-3 home)
Home: Georgia State Panthers (4-3, 3-0 home)
Venue: Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2 p.m. ET
Line (DraftKings): Georgia State -4, O/U 55.5

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What Decides It

The total sits well below how these teams have scored. Georgia State averages about 36 points a game and Coastal Carolina about 26, a combined 62 against a posted total of 55.5. Both defenses give up about 26 points a game, so neither unit gives a reason to expect a sudden drop.

Georgia State's last two games were high-scoring road losses, 32-38 and 22-49. Coastal Carolina's most recent game was a 32-35 home loss.

Coastal Carolina's best edge is through the air, and the wind works against it. The Chanticleers throw for about 235 yards a game against a Georgia State pass defense allowing about 206. That is the larger of the two passing edges in this game, and Deuce Bailey has protected the ball with 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

Gusty conditions in Atlanta make every deep throw harder, which puts more weight on the ground game. Georgia State runs for about 205 yards a game, close to the nearly 199 Coastal Carolina allows. The wind is also the strongest case for the under.

The other ground matchup is even. Coastal Carolina runs for about 148 yards a game, and Georgia State allows about 149.

Players to Watch

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Passing: Deuce Bailey – 109-204, 1,638 YDS, 16-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Dominic Lee-Knicely – 80 ATT, 452 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Colton Hinton – 13 REC, 297 YDS, 4 TD

Hinton has made his catches count, with 4 touchdowns on just 13 receptions. If the wind lets Bailey push the ball downfield, Hinton is the receiver most likely to turn it into a big play.

Georgia State Panthers

Passing: Cameran Brown – 110-166, 1,356 YDS, 14-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Lanear McCrary Jr. – 82 ATT, 399 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Rodshaun Dorsey – 24 REC, 418 YDS, 8 TD

Brown has been efficient, completing 110 of 166 attempts. Dorsey is his finisher, with 8 touchdown catches.

Weather

Conditions: Cloudy, 70°F
Wind: Gusts to 21 mph
Precipitation: 1%

Rain is not a concern. The wind is, and it should push both offenses toward the run.

Prediction

Georgia State is unbeaten at home, and its two home wins in this stretch came by 42-10 and 35-14. The Panthers should find room on the ground against a defense that allows heavy rushing yardage, and the wind only makes that more important. Coastal Carolina's passing keeps it within reach, but Georgia State covers and the game clears the total.

Pick: Georgia State 34, Coastal Carolina 27