Colorado State visits Utah State at Maverik Stadium in Logan on Saturday, October 31, and the Rams arrive as underdogs despite scoring more than twice as many points a game as the Aggies. Colorado State puts up nearly 39 a game; Utah State manages about 15. The catch is a Rams defense that gives up even more than its offense scores.

The Matchup

Records: Colorado State 3-4 (3-2 home), Utah State 2-5 (2-1 home)
Venue: Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: USA Net
Line: USU -7.5, O/U 61.5

Utah State Aggies tickets
We may earn a commission from ticket purchases made through this link.

What Decides It

Colorado State's passing game should find room against Utah State.

The Rams throw for 283 yards a game, and the Aggies allow about 211 through the air. That gap clearly favors Colorado State before you account for who is throwing.

Hauss Hejny has 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 104 attempts. The Rams have scored at least 23 points in each of their last five games, including 56 in last week's win over a team that put up 49.

Utah State should be able to run on Colorado State.

The Rams give up 263 rushing yards a game. Utah State averages only about 113 on the ground, so the Aggies face a run defense allowing more than twice what their ground game usually produces.

The problem is the Aggies have not topped 21 points in any of their last five games, and they were shut out in one of them. Javen Jacobs has 435 yards on 84 carries, a little over 5 yards a pop. If Utah State can't move the ball against a defense allowing 44 points a game, the line is wrong.

The total is a bet on Colorado State's games, not Utah State's.

The two teams combine for 53.5 points a game, well under the 61.5 total. But the split matters. Every one of Colorado State's last five games would have cleared this number. None of Utah State's would have.

The market is betting this game looks like a Rams game. Given that Colorado State's defense allows more than 535 yards a game, that is the safer read.

Location is the case for Utah State.

All three of Colorado State's wins have come at home. Its two road games in the last five were losses by 39 and 14 points, with the defense giving up 66 and 59. That road record is the strongest argument for the Aggies laying the points.

Players to Watch

Colorado State Rams

Passing: Hauss Hejny – 71-104, 952 YDS, 13-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Mel Brown – 52 ATT, 454 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: RJ Vick – 24 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD

Brown averages nearly 9 yards a carry, and the Rams run for about 177 yards a game against an Aggies defense allowing roughly 133. Colorado State can lean on him if the passing game stalls.

Utah State Aggies

Passing: Grady Brosterhous – 99-178, 1120 YDS, 7-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Javen Jacobs – 84 ATT, 435 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Eli Wood – 37 REC, 479 YDS, 5 TD

Brosterhous has thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. Wood leads the Aggies in receiving, and a Rams pass defense allowing about 272 yards a game gives him openings.

Prediction

Colorado State's offense is the one proven commodity in this game, and Utah State has not shown it can score enough to keep pace. The Rams' road losses are a real concern, but the Aggies' attack is a long way from the ones that hung 59 and 66 on Colorado State. The Rams win outright, 38-31, and the game goes over.