The Illinois Fighting Illini visit the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium on Saturday at noon ET, with the game on FS1. Maryland has not won since at least mid-September. Illinois arrives on a two-game winning streak and is a short road favorite.

The Matchup

Illinois: 4-3 (3-2 home)
Maryland: 2-5 (1-3 home)
Venue: SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Line (DraftKings): Illinois -2.5, O/U 54.5

Maryland Terrapins tickets
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What Decides It

Maryland's losing streak has come with a defense that cannot keep opponents under 35 points. The Terrapins have given up at least 35 in every one of their last five games. The worst was a 54-3 home loss in late September.

The offense has been uneven over that stretch. Maryland scored 30 in its most recent loss but only 3 in that home defeat to close September. Losing while allowing that many points leaves no margin for an off day on offense.

Illinois has the run game to keep the pressure on. The Illini rush for about 161 yards a game, and Maryland allows nearly 149 on the ground. Illinois typically runs for more than the Terrapins usually give up.

Illinois is also finding ways to close. It won its last game 21-10 at home and the one before that 38-37 in overtime on the road. The defense held its last opponent to 10 points, well under the 25 it allows on average.

The posted total looks low for these two teams. Illinois scores about 30 points a game and Maryland about 28, which adds up to nearly 59. The market sits about 4 points below that combined rate.

Maryland's recent games support the higher number. Every one of its last five games finished with more combined points than this total. Mild, dry conditions in College Park give neither offense an excuse.

Players to Watch

Illinois Fighting Illini

Passing: Katin Houser – 122-184, 1,440 YDS, 12-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Aidan Laughery – 75 ATT, 514 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Collin Dixon – 54 REC, 678 YDS, 10 TD

Dixon has 10 receiving touchdowns, well ahead of Maryland's leading receiver. Houser's touchdown-to-interception ratio is the cleaner of the two quarterbacks'.

Maryland Terrapins

Passing: Malik Washington – 155-261, 1,615 YDS, 9-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: DeJuan Williams – 38 ATT, 281 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Chris Durr Jr. – 52 REC, 580 YDS, 4 TD

Washington has thrown for more yards than Houser, on more attempts. Maryland passes for about 245 yards a game and Illinois allows 248 through the air, so the Terrapins' passing game against the Illini pass defense looks like an even fight.

Prediction

Illinois wins and covers. Maryland's defense has allowed 35 or more in five straight, and Illinois brings a productive run game and a touchdown-heavy receiver. Washington and Durr keep Maryland in range, which pushes this over the total.

Pick: Illinois 34, Maryland 27