Iowa State visits Baylor at McLane Stadium on Saturday, November 7, at 12:00 p.m. ET. The game turns on one collision: the Cyclones' run game, led by Aiden Flora, against a Baylor run defense that has held opponents to about 99 yards a game on the ground.

The Matchup

Records: Iowa State Cyclones 4-4 (home 4-1); Baylor Bears 5-3 (home 3-1)
Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Line (DraftKings): BAY -10, O/U 50.5

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What Decides It

Iowa State has to win on the ground, and Baylor's defense is set up to deny it. The Cyclones run for nearly 177 yards a game. Flora has 937 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground.

The receiving production is thin at the top. Iowa State throws for about 193 yards a game, and its leading receiver, Jamal Polite Jr., has just 14 catches. If Baylor holds the run anywhere near its season average, more of the load falls on Raynor.

Baylor's passing attack should find room against the Iowa State secondary. The Bears throw for nearly 284 yards a game, while the Cyclones allow about 231 through the air. That leaves Baylor's offense comfortably ahead of what Iowa State's pass defense usually gives up.

DJ Lagway has thrown 13 touchdowns against 4 interceptions, and Gavin Freeman is his clear go-to option with 63 catches. Baylor gains far more through the air than on the ground, so expect Lagway and Freeman to carry the load.

The scoring defense is the biggest separator between these teams. Baylor allows about 15 points a game while scoring nearly 31. Iowa State gives up about 27 a game, and it surrendered 49 in last week's 51-49 home win.

The Cyclones' road form is the concern. In their two road games among the last five, they scored 3 points in a 39-3 loss and 10 in a 24-10 loss. Baylor, meanwhile, comes in off a 41-9 road win, a game in which its defense looked like the unit its season numbers describe.

Players to Watch

Iowa State Cyclones

Rushing: Aiden Flora – 131 ATT, 937 YDS, 8 TD
Passing: Jaylen Raynor – 111-186, 1,416 YDS, 10-5 (TD-INT)
Receiving: Jamal Polite Jr. – 14 REC, 286 YDS, 2 TD

Flora is the player the game plan runs through. Raynor's 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions suggest Iowa State would rather not ask him to win it with his arm.

Baylor Bears

Passing: DJ Lagway – 129-242, 1,671 YDS, 13-4 (TD-INT)
Receiving: Gavin Freeman – 63 REC, 792 YDS, 3 TD
Rushing: Dawson Pendergrass – 95 ATT, 338 YDS, 2 TD

Lagway and Freeman are the matchup Iowa State's secondary has to solve. Pendergrass leads the backfield, but the Bears' identity sits with the passing game.

Prediction

Baylor 30, Iowa State 17. Baylor's run defense takes away what Iowa State does best, and Lagway has enough room against a secondary allowing about 231 yards a game to keep the chains moving. Iowa State's 3 and 10 points in its two recent road games point to an offense that struggles away from home. Baylor covers the 10 and the game stays under the 50.5 total.