Kansas visits TCU on Saturday, Oct. 31 at Amon G. Carter Stadium, with both teams sitting at 3-4. One of the clearest contrasts is on the ground, where the Kansas rushing attack runs into a TCU run defense that has given up little all season.
The Matchup
Records: Kansas 3-4 (3-1 home), TCU 3-4 (2-2 home)
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Line: TCU -6.5, O/U 45.5
TCU Horned Frogs tickets
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What Decides It
The Kansas run game against the TCU run defense is the key matchup. Kansas runs for 207 yards a game. TCU allows 105, roughly half that, so something has to give.
If Kansas gets near its usual output on the ground, it can control the clock and keep TCU's passing game on the sideline. If the Horned Frogs hold the Jayhawks close to their normal allowance, Kansas has to win another way, away from home, where it is 0-3 this season.
TCU keeps opponents off the scoreboard. The Horned Frogs allow just 14 points a game while scoring 23, and they still sit at 3-4.
Over its last five games, TCU held four opponents to 21 points or fewer. It also scored 20 or fewer in four of those five games and went 1-3 in them. Low-scoring games have been the pattern.
Kansas, meanwhile, is 3-1 at home and winless in three games away from home. Its last two trips ended in losses of 35-24 and 41-24.
Jaden Craig's passing gives TCU a clear edge through the air. The Horned Frogs throw for 295 yards a game, well above the 183 Kansas allows through the air.
Craig has completed 162 of 240 passes, about two-thirds, with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Ed Small is his top target. If TCU can sustain drives through the air, it can keep the Kansas run game off the field.
Players to Watch
Kansas Jayhawks
Passing: Isaiah Marshall – 105-196, 1,506 YDS, 11-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Dylan Edwards – 105 ATT, 531 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Nik McMillan – 25 REC, 466 YDS, 5 TD
Edwards leads the Kansas ground game. McMillan is the big-play threat, averaging nearly 19 yards per catch.
TCU Horned Frogs
Passing: Jaden Craig – 162-240, 2,066 YDS, 11-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jeremy Payne – 88 ATT, 429 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Ed Small – 38 REC, 514 YDS, 2 TD
Small is TCU's receiving leader, while Payne leads the Horned Frogs on the ground.
Prediction
TCU allows far fewer points per game than Kansas, and the Jayhawks have yet to win away from home. The Horned Frogs slow the Jayhawks' run game enough to force Marshall into long-yardage throws, while Craig does just enough through the air. Kansas keeps it close behind its ground game and covers, but TCU wins.