Kansas State visits Colorado at Folsom Field on Saturday, Oct. 31, and the betting line and the model disagree on who wins. The Buffaloes are 3-point favorites, yet the win-probability model gives the Wildcats about a 66% chance.
The Matchup
Away: Kansas State Wildcats (4-3, 4-1 home)
Home: Colorado Buffaloes (2-5, 1-2 home)
Venue: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Line (DraftKings): COLO -3, O/U 46.5
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What Decides It
Kansas State's ground game should find room against Colorado. The Wildcats run for nearly 218 yards a game. Colorado's defense gives up nearly 139 on the ground, so the Buffaloes are not built to take that away.
Avery Johnson is part of it. He leads Kansas State in both passing and rushing, with 462 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 51 carries.
Colorado's passing game runs into a stingy Kansas State pass defense. The Buffaloes throw for about 267 yards a game, but the Wildcats allow only about 147 through the air. Something has to give.
Isaac Wilson has thrown 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Against a pass defense this tight, turnovers are the risk that could swing field position toward Kansas State.
Colorado's form does not look like a favorite's. The Buffaloes have lost at least 5 straight, and in that stretch they scored 13 points or fewer three times. They were blown out 57-24 at their last outing.
There was one near miss: a 27-24 home loss on Oct. 18. Kansas State is not hot either, having dropped three of its last five, and its two losses away from home account for its entire road record. Still, the Wildcats score almost 33 points a game and allow about 21, a far healthier profile than Colorado's.
Players to Watch
Kansas State Wildcats
Passing: Avery Johnson – 118-187, 1,301 YDS, 10-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Avery Johnson – 51 ATT, 462 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Jaron Tibbs – 34 REC, 325 YDS, 4 TD
Colorado Buffaloes
Passing: Isaac Wilson – 77-128, 979 YDS, 6-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: JaQuail Smith – 64 ATT, 298 YDS
Receiving: Joseph Williams – 46 REC, 643 YDS, 5 TD
Williams leads Colorado in receiving, so his day against Kansas State's pass defense is the matchup to track.
Weather
Showers are forecast at Folsom Field with a 51% chance of precipitation, 56 degrees and gusts of 7 mph.
Prediction
Kansas State 27, Colorado 20. The Wildcats bring a run game that out-gains what Colorado's defense typically allows by a wide margin. Colorado's passing game meets a Kansas State pass defense that allows far less than the Buffaloes usually throw for, and a team that has lost at least 5 in a row should not be laying points here.