Louisiana Tech visits South Alabama on Saturday at Hancock Whitney Stadium with a defense that has not allowed a point in two games. The Bulldogs shut out their last two opponents, 26-0 and 24-0. The question is whether that defense can hold up against a Jaguars rushing attack, with thunderstorms in the forecast.

The Matchup

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 5-2 (4-0 home)
South Alabama Jaguars: 4-3 (3-0 home)
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+
Line (DraftKings): LT -6, O/U 58.5

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What Decides It

South Alabama's run game holds a clear edge over Louisiana Tech's run defense. The Jaguars run for about 214 yards a game. Louisiana Tech's defense gives up about 125 on the ground, so South Alabama is averaging nearly 89 more rushing yards than the Bulldogs typically allow.

Keenan Phillips is the engine, with 514 yards and 5 touchdowns. If South Alabama can stay on schedule with the run, it keeps the ball away from a Louisiana Tech offense that has been efficient through the air.

Louisiana Tech's defense is peaking at the right time. The Bulldogs have won 4 straight, and the last two were shutouts. That run started with two tight escapes, 31-29 and 32-31, before the defense clamped down completely.

Season-long, Louisiana Tech allows 21 points a game. South Alabama gives up more than 32. The Jaguars' defense allowed 49, 45 and 36 points in three of their last five, and the offense managed just 13 in their most recent game, a 20-13 loss on the road.

The Bulldogs' passing game also lines up well. Louisiana Tech throws for nearly 249 yards a game, and South Alabama's pass defense allows about 253. That favors Blake Baker, who has 10 touchdowns and 1 interception.

The weather tilts this toward the ground game. Thunderstorms, gusts to 16 mph and a 51% chance of rain make for a sloppy passing day. That works against Louisiana Tech's air attack more than South Alabama's.

Wet conditions push both teams toward the run. Louisiana Tech can run too, at about 151 yards a game, against a South Alabama run defense that gives up nearly 162. But the Jaguars have the bigger rushing edge.

Players to Watch

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Passing: Blake Baker – 96-133, 1,160 YDS, 10-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Andrew Burnette – 85 ATT, 349 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Jalen Mickens – 40 REC, 586 YDS, 3 TD

Baker has protected the ball all season. Mickens leads the team in receiving, and how well that connection holds up in the wind is a key storyline.

South Alabama Jaguars

Passing: Jared Hollins – 68-125, 1,003 YDS, 7-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Keenan Phillips – 96 ATT, 514 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Brendan Jenkins – 25 REC, 430 YDS, 3 TD

Hollins is completing just over half his passes, which puts more weight on Phillips and the run game. Jenkins leads the Jaguars in receiving.

Weather

Thunderstorms are forecast for Mobile, with a temperature of 77°F, gusts to 16 mph and a 51% chance of precipitation. Expect both teams to lean on the run and keep the ball on the ground.

Prediction

South Alabama is unbeaten at home and the weather suits its rushing attack, so this stays closer than the line suggests. But Louisiana Tech's defense has been far stingier all season, and Baker's ball security wins a game played in the slop. The Bulldogs extend the streak.

Pick: Louisiana Tech 30, South Alabama 27