Marshall visits Old Dominion on Saturday at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk with a defense that has given up yards in bunches. The question is whether the Monarchs, who were shut out 26-0 last week, have the offense to take advantage. The answer decides a game the betting market and the win-probability model read differently.

The Matchup

Away: Marshall Thundering Herd (4-3)
Home: Old Dominion Monarchs (2-6, 1-3 at home)
Venue: S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+
Line (DraftKings): Marshall -3, O/U 46.5

Old Dominion Monarchs tickets
We may earn a commission from ticket purchases made through this link.

What Decides It

Old Dominion's run game gets a favorable matchup. Marshall allows nearly 192 rushing yards a game, almost double the 98 the Monarchs average on the ground. If Old Dominion is going to move the ball at all, it starts here.

Devin Roche, the Monarchs' rushing leader, has carried the ball 103 times. The Herd defense gives up about 31 points a game overall, so the opening is there if the ground game can stay on schedule.

The scoring total looks high for these two offenses. Old Dominion averages under 16 points a game and Marshall about 22. Together they have produced roughly 37 points a game, well short of the 46.5 the market has posted.

Old Dominion's side of that math is the strongest case for the under. The Monarchs have not scored more than 20 points in any of their last five games.

Marshall's passing game holds a modest edge. The Herd throw for about 238 yards a game against an Old Dominion defense allowing about 211, an advantage that leans Marshall. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has 6 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, though, so the turnover risk travels with him.

The model sees the game the other way, giving Old Dominion about a 53% chance to win despite Marshall being favored. That split makes this closer than the line alone suggests.

Players to Watch

Marshall Thundering Herd

Passing: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson – 90-140, 1,041 YDS, 6-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Judah Price – 41 ATT, 237 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw – 25 REC, 335 YDS, 4 TD

Turner-Bradshaw, Marshall's receiving leader, has 4 touchdown catches. Price leads a run game averaging 157 yards a game.

Old Dominion Monarchs

Passing: Quinn Henicle – 54-98, 656 YDS, 4-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Devin Roche – 103 ATT, 382 YDS
Receiving: TJ Johnson – 17 REC, 265 YDS, 3 TD

Henicle has completed just over half his passes with an even touchdown-to-interception split. Roche is the player who can exploit Marshall's run defense.

Weather

Hazy sunshine and 61°F with no chance of rain, but gusts up to 18 mph. Wind like that can disrupt the deep ball and kicking, another nudge toward a lower-scoring game.

Prediction

Old Dominion should find some room on the ground, but an offense averaging about 251 yards a game is not built to keep pace for four quarters. Marshall averages more passing and rushing yards than Old Dominion, and that gives the Herd more paths to points. The Herd win a grinding game, cover the 3 and stay under the total.

Pick: Marshall 24, Old Dominion 17