No. 16 Wake Forest hosts Merrimack on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET in Winston-Salem, with the Demon Deacons riding a winning streak of at least 5 games. The matchup that matters is Merrimack's ground game against a Wake Forest run defense that has smothered opponents all season.

The Matchup

Records: Merrimack Warriors 4-5 – Wake Forest Demon Deacons 7-1
Venue: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Line (DraftKings): WAKE -47.5, O/U 58.5

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What Decides It

Merrimack's only realistic path runs straight into the strength of the Wake Forest defense.

The Warriors run for about 162 yards a game. Wake Forest allows only about 83 on the ground, so something has to give, and the Demon Deacons' numbers say it won't be them.

If the run stalls, the fallback is thin. Merrimack throws for about 177 yards a game, and AJ Hairston Jr has 7 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. Wake Forest does give up about 241 passing yards a game, but Merrimack's passing attack falls well short of that mark.

Wake Forest should be able to move the ball any way it wants.

The Demon Deacons run for about 175 yards a game against a Merrimack defense that allows about 106. Ty Clark III has turned that ground game into points, with 7 rushing touchdowns.

The passing game is just as dangerous. Wake Forest throws for about 283 yards a game, comfortably more than the roughly 241 Merrimack allows. Gio Lopez has 18 touchdown passes and 1 interception, which means the Warriors can't count on mistakes to bail them out.

The scoring gap points to a lopsided afternoon.

Wake Forest scores about 39 points a game and allows about 18. Merrimack's offense averages 18 points, right at what the Demon Deacons typically allow.

Recent form backs it up. Wake Forest beat its last opponent 51-7, won 41-7 before that, and posted a 57-3 win earlier in the streak. Merrimack has won its last two, 19-14 and 24-17, but both came at home. Both of its road games in that five-game stretch were losses, 27-21 and 41-24.

Players to Watch

Merrimack Warriors

Passing: AJ Hairston Jr – 114-206, 1,362 YDS, 7-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Matthias Latham – 121 ATT, 623 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Austin Palmer – 25 REC, 417 YDS, 2 TD

Latham is the key. Merrimack needs him to keep drives alive against a defense built to stop exactly what he does.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Passing: Gio Lopez – 153-228, 2,176 YDS, 18-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Ty Clark III – 78 ATT, 376 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Carlos Hernandez – 57 REC, 856 YDS, 5 TD

Hernandez is Lopez's top target. Merrimack's pass defense will have to account for him on every snap.

Prediction

Wake Forest wins comfortably. Merrimack's run game is its best shot at staying close, and it's running into a defense that allows about 83 rushing yards a game while Lopez and Clark go to work on the other side. The Demon Deacons extend the streak, though the margin falls short of the 47.5-point spread.

Wake Forest 45, Merrimack 10