No. 1 Miami puts an 8-0 record on the line at No. 11 Notre Dame on Saturday night, and the betting market still favors the Irish. The game turns on one collision: a Hurricanes offense throwing for about 332 yards a game against a defense allowing about 151.
The Matchup
Away: Miami Hurricanes (No. 1) – 8-0
Home: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (No. 11) – 7-1, 3-0 at home
Venue: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Line (DraftKings): ND -7, O/U 54.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish tickets
We may earn a commission from ticket purchases made through this link.
What Decides It
Notre Dame's pass defense against Miami's passing game is the matchup that should decide it. Miami throws for more than double what the Irish allow through the air. One of those numbers has to give, and it decides whether Notre Dame can keep this a low-scoring game.
The Hurricanes rarely beat themselves through the air, with Darian Mensah throwing just 1 interception all season. If the Irish cannot force mistakes, they have to slow Miami's passing game some other way.
Miami's run defense stands in the way of Notre Dame's ground game. The Irish run for 186 yards a game, but the Hurricanes allow only about 61.
If Miami holds the run near its season rate, Notre Dame has to win through CJ Carr. That matchup is close to even: the Irish throw for about 257 yards a game, and Miami allows about 252. Carr has protected the ball, which matters if the Irish have to lean on him.
The total looks low for two offenses this productive. Miami scores about 48 points a game and Notre Dame about 40, an 88-point combined rate against a total of 54.5. Both defenses are strong on paper, with the Irish allowing about 13 points a game and the Hurricanes about 18.
Miami's recent results argue for points, though. The Hurricanes allowed 35 points in a 38-35 road win last time out and again in a 43-35 home win on October 17. A defense that leaky lately is a tough sell for an under.
Players to Watch
Miami Hurricanes
Passing: Darian Mensah – 188-233, 2,425 YDS, 25-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Javian Mallory – 71 ATT, 495 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Malachi Toney – 73 REC, 1,027 YDS, 13 TD
Toney is the receiver the Irish secondary has to account for. If Notre Dame keeps him in check, the pass defense numbers hold up.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Passing: CJ Carr – 148-222, 1,849 YDS, 18-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Nolan James Jr. – 90 ATT, 519 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Jordan Faison – 38 REC, 497 YDS, 4 TD
James runs straight into Miami's strength. If he moves the chains anyway, the Irish control the clock and the line looks right.
Prediction
Miami Hurricanes 31, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 27. Miami's run defense pushes the Irish into a passing game that sits only even with what the Hurricanes allow, while Mensah's ball security keeps the visitors from handing Notre Dame short fields. The Irish are 3-0 at home and their last loss came 24-28 on the road, so this stays close, but the unbeaten team wins it and the game clears the total.