Michigan visits Rutgers at SHI Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 31, with the Wolverines favored by more than two touchdowns. The game turns on whether a Michigan offense that has scored 21 points or fewer in four straight games can finally break loose against a Rutgers defense built to be run on.

The Matchup

Michigan Wolverines: 4-3
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 2-5 (1-3 at home)
Venue: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 31
TV: BTN
Line (DraftKings): MICH -15.5, O/U 46.5

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What Decides It

Michigan should run the ball until Rutgers proves it can stop it.

Michigan runs for about 135 yards a game, and Rutgers gives up 64 more than that on the ground. Jordan Marshall has 319 yards and 4 touchdowns on 81 carries.

The passing game is not built to carry Michigan. The Wolverines throw for 166 yards a game, and Bryce Underwood has 5 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. A run-first plan keeps the ball away from Rutgers and keeps Underwood out of risky downs.

Rutgers' only real path to an upset runs through Dylan Lonergan's arm.

Rutgers throws for 242 yards a game; Michigan allows 155 through the air. Something has to give. Lonergan has 10 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, and KJ Duff has turned 45 catches into 774 yards and 9 scores.

Rutgers' ground game runs into a stingy front. Antwan Raymond leads an offense that runs for 153 yards a game, but Michigan allows only 96. Expect Rutgers to lean on Lonergan and Duff early.

The spread asks Michigan to do something it hasn't done in a month.

Michigan's last three losses came by 7, 6 and 1 points, including a 13-6 overtime loss last week. The defense keeps it in games, allowing about 16 points a game, but the offense averages only 20. Covering 15.5 means winning by 16, and only the 52-17 win cleared that bar over Michigan's last five games.

Rutgers' defense makes that possible. The Scarlet Knights allow 33 points a game and gave up 42 and 47 in two of their last three outings. If Michigan's run game finds its footing, this is the week the scoreboard finally moves.

Players to Watch

Michigan Wolverines

Passing: Bryce Underwood – 72-124, 924 YDS, 5-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jordan Marshall – 81 ATT, 319 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: JJ Buchanan – 33 REC, 539 YDS, 4 TD

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Passing: Dylan Lonergan – 74-127, 1,066 YDS, 10-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Antwan Raymond – 123 ATT, 648 YDS, 6 TD
Receiving: KJ Duff – 45 REC, 774 YDS, 9 TD

Prediction

Michigan's defense should limit Rutgers' run game and make Lonergan earn everything, while Marshall finds room against Rutgers' porous run defense. The Michigan offense has been stuck in recent weeks, though, and Duff is good enough to keep Rutgers within reach. Michigan wins but doesn't cover, and the total stays under.

Michigan 27, Rutgers 17.