No. 4 Indiana hosts Minnesota at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington on Saturday, Oct. 31, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The Hoosiers allow just 12 points a game. That defense matters more than usual right now, because Indiana has scored 20 points or fewer in each of its last three games.

The Matchup

Records: Minnesota 5-2; Indiana 7-1 (4-1 at home)
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Line: Indiana -20.5, O/U 40.5

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What Decides It

Indiana's run defense should take away what little ground game Minnesota has. The Hoosiers give up about 73 rushing yards a game, and Minnesota only runs for about 100. The Gophers' ground game is modest to begin with, and it is walking into the wrong defense.

That pushes the game onto Drake Lindsey's arm, and he has thrown 6 interceptions. Indiana allows about 265 total yards a game, so Minnesota cannot afford to give away possessions against a defense this stingy.

Indiana's ground game holds a clear edge over Minnesota's run defense. The Hoosiers run for nearly 192 yards a game. Minnesota allows about 124, so Indiana's typical output beats what the Gophers usually concede by nearly 68 yards.

Turbo Richard is the engine, and a steady run game is the cleanest way for Indiana to shorten the game and protect a lead. If the Hoosiers win on the ground early, Minnesota's path to keeping it close narrows quickly.

The total looks low on season averages, but Indiana's last three games back it. These teams combine for about 60 points a game, roughly 20 more than the posted total. On paper, the market is pricing in far less scoring than the teams' combined season rate suggests.

Indiana's recent games tell a different story. Its last three ended 13-6 in overtime, 15-19 and 20-17, and every one of them stayed under this number. Minnesota's last game was a 13-10 win, and the Gophers scored 13 in a 41-13 loss before that.

Players to Watch

Indiana Hoosiers

Passing: Josh Hoover – 116-187, 1,741 YDS, 18-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Turbo Richard – 106 ATT, 711 YDS, 6 TD
Receiving: Charlie Becker – 42 REC, 726 YDS, 8 TD

Hoover has protected the ball all season, and Becker has been a consistent scoring threat. Richard's workload is the barometer for whether Indiana controls the game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Passing: Drake Lindsey – 141-222, 1,472 YDS, 9-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: TJ Thomas – 57 ATT, 325 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Javon Tracy – 39 REC, 420 YDS, 1 TD

Lindsey's turnover count is the number to watch against a defense this stingy. Tracy leads the Gophers in receiving, but Minnesota's leading receiver and rusher have just 2 touchdowns between them.

Prediction

Indiana 27, Minnesota 10. The Hoosiers should lean on Richard against Minnesota's run defense, and Minnesota's offense has not topped 20 points in any of its last three games. Indiana wins comfortably, but its recent offense makes covering 20.5 a stretch, and the under is the better play.