No. 11 Texas hosts Mississippi State on Saturday, Oct. 31, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The game turns on whether Kamario Taylor and a Bulldogs passing game averaging nearly 265 yards can move the ball against a Texas defense allowing only 178 through the air.

The Matchup

Records: Mississippi State 4-3, Texas 5-2
Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. CT, Saturday, Oct. 31
Line (DraftKings): Texas -20.5, O/U 50.5

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What Decides It

Texas's pass defense is the matchup to watch against Mississippi State's passing game. Taylor has thrown 17 touchdowns against 4 interceptions, and the Bulldogs average nearly 440 yards of offense a game. That production runs straight into a Texas unit allowing about 285 total yards a game.

Mississippi State throws for roughly 87 more yards a game than Texas gives up. Something has to give, and the Longhorns' season-long numbers say it won't be their secondary.

Mississippi State's offense has gone cold during its slide. The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight, scoring 15 points last week, 0 at the previous stop and 23 before that. Their season scoring average of 30 points a game is propped up by early wins, including 41 and 31 in the last two victories shown.

The defense hasn't bailed them out either. Mississippi State allowed 56 points in one of those losses and gives up nearly 28 a game on the season. Against a Texas offense scoring about 31 a game, the Bulldogs can't afford another low-scoring night.

The market expects less scoring than these teams usually produce. The two offenses combine for nearly 61 points a game, about 10 more than the 50.5 total. Texas has also played tight games lately, with 3 of its last 4 decided by 3 points.

That same trend raises a question about the spread. Texas is laying more than 20 points, yet none of its last 4 games was decided by more than 7. The Longhorns' defense makes them the clear pick to win, but a blowout asks a lot of an offense averaging about 224 passing yards a game.

Players to Watch

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Passing: Kamario Taylor – 104-159, 1,460 YDS, 17-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Fluff Bothwell – 91 ATT, 514 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Anthony Evans III – 53 REC, 647 YDS, 5 TD

Evans is the target Texas has to account for, with 53 catches on the season. Mississippi State's ground game at 175 yards a game gives Taylor play-action looks if Bothwell gets going.

Texas Longhorns

Passing: Arch Manning – 124-196, 1,507 YDS, 12-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Raleek Brown – 84 ATT, 422 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Ryan Wingo – 33 REC, 456 YDS, 4 TD

Manning gets a favorable draw. Mississippi State allows about 267 passing yards a game, well above the 224 Texas averages, so this is a chance for him to put up a cleaner line than his 7 interceptions suggest.

Prediction

Texas wins, but not by enough to cover. The Longhorns' defense should keep a slumping Mississippi State offense under its season average, and Manning should find room against a soft Bulldogs pass defense. Texas's recent pattern of one-score games points to a comfortable win short of 21 points, with the total landing under.