No. 23 Missouri visits Arkansas on Saturday night at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. The Tigers bring a passing game led by Austin Simmons, who has thrown 14 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. The question is whether that attack travels, because Missouri is unbeaten at home and has not been the same team away from it.

The Matchup

Away: No. 23 Missouri Tigers (5-2, 4-0 home)
Home: Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4, 2-2 home)
Venue: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 7:45 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Line: MIZ -10, O/U 48.5 (DraftKings)

Arkansas Razorbacks tickets
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What Decides It

Missouri's passing game should find room against the Arkansas secondary. The Tigers throw for about 268 yards a game, while Arkansas allows about 213 through the air. That gap of roughly 55 yards favors Missouri, and Simmons has protected the ball well enough to exploit it.

The Tigers can also lean on the ground. Missouri runs for about 161 yards a game, and Arkansas gives up about 145 on the ground, so the Razorbacks have to defend a balanced offense that beats their averages in both phases.

Missouri's form outside its own stadium is the reason this isn't a lock. The Tigers are 4-0 at home and 1-2 everywhere else. Their last two road trips in this stretch both ended in losses, including a 3-31 defeat in their most recent game.

Arkansas, meanwhile, is coming off a 31-21 road win. The Razorbacks have been uneven at home, though, splitting four games in Fayetteville with a 17-45 loss and a 34-6 win in the mix. This team's floor and ceiling are far apart.

The total looks light against both teams' scoring rates. Missouri averages about 31 points a game and Arkansas about 21, which adds up to about 52 — roughly 4 points above the posted number. The market is pricing in less scoring than the two teams' season rates.

The defensive numbers cut the other way. Arkansas allows about 27 points a game and Missouri about 20, which together land just under the line. That makes the over a lean, not a lock.

Players to Watch

Missouri Tigers

Passing: Austin Simmons – 132-209, 1,773 YDS, 14-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jamal Roberts – 167 ATT, 867 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Cayden Lee – 47 REC, 678 YDS, 5 TD

Roberts is the engine of a run game that outgains what Arkansas typically allows. Lee is the target to watch if the Tigers go after the Razorbacks' secondary.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Passing: KJ Jackson – 131-215, 1,444 YDS, 7-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Braylen Russell – 58 ATT, 205 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Chris Marshall – 43 REC, 633 YDS, 2 TD

Jackson carries more of the load here, with Arkansas passing for about 231 yards a game against a Missouri defense allowing about 227. The Jackson-to-Marshall connection is the Razorbacks' best path to points.

Weather

Forecast calls for cloudy skies, 63°F, gusts to 15 mph and a 34% chance of precipitation. Gusts can make throwing harder, and that could cut into the passing edge Missouri holds in this matchup.

Prediction

Missouri 31, Arkansas 20. The Tigers hold the edge in both passing and rushing matchups, and Simmons' ball security gives Arkansas few free possessions. The road struggles are real, but Missouri's offense should do enough to cover and push the game over the total.