Nebraska visits Illinois on Friday night at Gies Memorial Stadium with the two teams' form running in opposite directions. The Cornhuskers still have the stronger defense in this matchup, allowing about 16 points a game. Their offense, though, has scored 17 or fewer in every game of the current skid.

The Matchup

Records: Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-3 (4-2 home); Illinois Fighting Illini 5-3 (3-2 home)
Venue: Gies Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
Kickoff: Friday, November 6, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line: Nebraska -4.5, O/U 49.5

Illinois Fighting Illini tickets
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What Decides It

Nebraska's run game is the matchup that should decide it.

The Cornhuskers run for nearly 187 yards a game, and Illinois allows about 130 on the ground. That is a clear edge for the offense, and it is where Nebraska can lean on the Illini rather than trade throws.

Through the air, the matchup is closer to even. Nebraska throws for about 238 yards a game, right around the 241 Illinois gives up. The cleaner path for the Cornhuskers runs through Jamal Rule and the ground game.

Illinois has to move the ball against a defense that has given up very little all season.

Nebraska allows about 91 rushing yards and about 180 passing yards a game. Illinois averages about 164 on the ground and 230 through the air, so both phases of the Illini offense average more than the Cornhuskers concede.

Something has to give. The Illini total offense sits near 394 yards a game, while Nebraska holds opponents to about 271. Expect the Nebraska defense to set the terms of this one.

Recent results say the low total is set right.

On season averages, these teams combine for more than 61 points a game, well above the 49.5 total. The recent scores point the other way.

Nebraska lost 17-10, 17-14 and 20-17 in its last three games. Illinois' last two wins finished 20-17 and 21-10. The 38-37 overtime win on the road is the outlier in the Illini streak, not the pattern. Lean under.

Players to Watch

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Passing: Anthony Colandrea – 161-263, 1,825 YDS, 15-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jamal Rule – 73 ATT, 463 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Kwazi Gilmer – 42 REC, 545 YDS, 7 TD

Rule is the player to watch given the edge on the ground. Colandrea needs to limit mistakes against an Illinois defense that has been more generous through the air than on the ground.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Passing: Katin Houser – 140-216, 1,663 YDS, 13-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Aidan Laughery – 89 ATT, 560 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Collin Dixon – 60 REC, 781 YDS, 10 TD

Dixon leads both teams' listed receivers in catches, yards and touchdowns. If Illinois is going to crack the Nebraska defense, he is the most likely way in.

Prediction

Nebraska's defense, allowing 15.6 points a game, is the reason to back the Cornhuskers, and their run game has a real edge against an Illinois defense allowing 129.9 yards a game. Illinois has won close games during its streak, but Nebraska's offense should find more room here than it has during its slump. Nebraska wins a tight, low-scoring game that stays under the total but falls short of covering.

Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers 23, Illinois Fighting Illini 20