The Nevada Wolf Pack visit the unbeaten UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 31. The game hinges on whether Nevada's ground game can move a UCLA defense that allows about 90 rushing yards a game. The Wolf Pack run for nearly 182 yards a game, roughly double that.

The Matchup

Records: Nevada 3-4 (2-2 home), UCLA 7-0 (4-0 home)
Ranking: UCLA No. 7, Nevada unranked
Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 1:15 p.m. PT (4:15 p.m. ET)
TV: BTN
Line: UCLA -22.5, O/U 43.5

UCLA Bruins tickets
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What Decides It

Nevada's run game meets a UCLA defense that gives up about half what the Wolf Pack usually gain on the ground. Nevada's yardage is split almost evenly between run and pass, and Dominic Kelley has carried 111 times for 582 yards.

If the Bruins hold to their season average, Nevada has to win through the air. That is the one phase where the numbers are close: UCLA gives up slightly more passing yards a game than Nevada averages.

UCLA's own run game should dictate the game from the other side. The Bruins rush for 233 yards a game, and Nevada allows about 166. Nevada's run defense gives up plenty, and UCLA's rushing attack is the strongest part of its offense.

Wayne Knight is the finisher, with 12 rushing touchdowns. Add a defense allowing about 15 points a game, and the Bruins outscore opponents by about 19 points a game.

The total looks low on paper, but UCLA's most recent games point to the under. These offenses combine for nearly 61 points a game on the season, well above the posted number. That season average includes some shootouts, though.

UCLA's last three games all finished under this total, after two earlier games that went well over it. Add showers in the forecast, and a slower, lower-scoring game is the likelier script.

Players to Watch

Nevada Wolf Pack

Passing: Carter Jones – 53-89, 654 YDS, 3-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Dominic Kelley – 111 ATT, 582 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Gary Givens III – 19 REC, 305 YDS, 1 TD

Kelley leads the ground game, but Jones and Givens may decide whether Nevada can score at all. Jones has thrown 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and he will likely be asked to do more than usual.

UCLA Bruins

Passing: Nico Iamaleava – 72-116, 982 YDS, 4-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Wayne Knight – 99 ATT, 627 YDS, 12 TD
Receiving: Semaj Morgan – 31 REC, 383 YDS, 2 TD

Knight is the centerpiece against a soft Nevada run defense. Iamaleava has 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, so ball security in wet conditions is the one thing that could keep Nevada close.

Weather

The forecast calls for showers, 69°F, with gusts to 9 mph and a 51% chance of precipitation. Wind should not be an issue, but a wet ball favors the team with the better run game. That is UCLA.

Prediction

UCLA wins, 31-10. The Bruins' run defense limits Kelley and the Nevada ground game, while Knight and the UCLA rushing attack find room against a defense that allows plenty on the ground. The margin falls just short of the spread, and the score stays under the total.