The New Mexico Lobos (6-1) visit the San José State Spartans (4-4) at CEFCU Stadium on Saturday, October 31, at 4:00 p.m. ET. The matchup that matters is New Mexico's run game against a San José State defense that has given up ground all season. If the Lobos run the way they have, the Spartans have little room to answer.
The Matchup
Records: New Mexico 6-1; San José State 4-4 (home 1-2)
Venue: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: MW+
Line: New Mexico -14.5, O/U 42.5
San José State Spartans tickets
We may earn a commission from ticket purchases made through this link.
What Decides It
New Mexico's ground game should control this one. The Lobos run for nearly 211 yards a game, and San José State allows nearly 143 on the ground. That leaves New Mexico about 68 yards a game ahead of what this defense typically gives up.
Scottre Humphrey is the engine, with 453 yards and 9 touchdowns on 95 carries. New Mexico throws for only about 153 yards a game, so the offense is built around the run. Against this run defense, it has no reason to change that.
The Lobos' defense gives San José State little margin for error. New Mexico allows just over 11 points a game while scoring 37, a differential of nearly 26 points. That is the profile of a team that wins without needing a shootout.
The pressure falls on a San José State offense averaging about 20 points. The Spartans run for nearly 130 yards a game, but New Mexico gives up only about 86 on the ground. Their better path is through the air: they throw for nearly 233 yards a game against a Lobos pass defense allowing about 175.
That puts the game on Luke Weaver and Carson Clark. Clark has 47 catches for 551 yards and 5 touchdowns. If San José State can't move the ball through the air, it is hard to see where the points come from.
New Mexico arrives on a 4-game winning streak, but the last two were tighter. The Lobos beat their last two opponents 21-16 and 21-10, well below their season scoring rate. Before that, they put up 61 and 42 points in back-to-back wins.
San José State has lost 2 of its last 3, scoring 13 points in each of those losses. The Spartans have not scored more than 24 points in any of their last 5 games. They are also 1-2 at home this season.
The total is the other story. These teams combine for about 57 points a game on the season, roughly 15 above the posted 42.5. The market is pricing in far less scoring than their combined season rate.
Players to Watch
New Mexico Lobos
Passing: Toa Fa'avae – 49-87, 790 YDS, 5-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Scottre Humphrey – 95 ATT, 453 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: Cade Keith – 20 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD
Fa'avae has thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns.
San José State Spartans
Passing: Luke Weaver – 138-219, 1,620 YDS, 11-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jabari Bates – 131 ATT, 586 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Carson Clark – 47 REC, 551 YDS, 5 TD
Bates has carried the ball plenty but found the end zone only once. Against this run defense, the touchdowns will have to come from Weaver.
Prediction
New Mexico wins and covers. The Lobos' run game holds a clear edge over a soft Spartans run defense, and their defense has kept opponents to about 11 points a game. San José State's offense has topped out at 24 points over its last 5 games, and a 28-13 final lands just under the total.