New Mexico visits Nevada on Friday night in Reno with the better run game on both sides of the ball. The Lobos run for about 213 yards a game and hold opponents to about 82 on the ground. That is the split a 3-5 Nevada team has to close at Mackay Stadium.

The Matchup

Records: New Mexico Lobos 7-1, Nevada Wolf Pack 3-5 (2-2 at home)
Venue: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
Kickoff: Friday, November 6, 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Line (DraftKings): UNM -9.5, O/U 36.5

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What Decides It

New Mexico's ground game should find room against Nevada's run defense. The Lobos lean on the run, gaining far more on the ground than the 148 passing yards they average. Nevada gives up about 161 rushing yards a game, more than it allows through the air.

Scottre Humphrey is the engine, with 540 yards and 11 touchdowns. The passing game has been shakier: Toa Fa'avae has 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Expect New Mexico to keep the ball on the ground and make Nevada prove it can stop it.

Nevada's balanced attack runs straight into the strength of the Lobos' defense. The Wolf Pack split their yardage almost evenly, running for 167 yards a game and throwing for 169. New Mexico allows less than half that rushing average, which takes away one half of the Nevada offense.

Dominic Kelley has 588 yards and 5 touchdowns, but he is facing the wall here. If Nevada has to throw, the Lobos give up about 177 passing yards a game, noticeably more than they allow on the ground. Carter Jones has 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and Nevada was shut out 27-0 on the road last time out.

The low total reflects New Mexico's recent form, not its season average. On season rates these teams combine for 58 points a game, far above the 36.5 the market has set. That average is propped up by earlier Lobos wins of 61-7 and 42-18.

New Mexico has scored exactly 21 points in each of its last three games, winning by holding opponents to 16, 16 and 10. The Lobos allow about 12 points a game on the season, and Nevada scores about 23. The market is betting on New Mexico's defense to set the tone, and the recent results back that call.

Players to Watch

New Mexico Lobos

Passing: Toa Fa'avae – 58-101, 891 YDS, 6-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Scottre Humphrey – 111 ATT, 540 YDS, 11 TD
Receiving: Cade Keith – 22 REC, 295 YDS, 3 TD

Nevada Wolf Pack

Passing: Carter Jones – 53-89, 654 YDS, 3-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Dominic Kelley – 118 ATT, 588 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Gary Givens III – 19 REC, 305 YDS, 1 TD

Prediction

New Mexico wins and covers. Humphrey and the Lobos' run game should find room against a Nevada defense allowing 161 rushing yards a game, while the Wolf Pack struggle to run against a front giving up 82. The Lobos have been grinding out 21-point games lately, and that is enough here.

Pick: New Mexico 24, Nevada 10