No. 20 Northwestern visits unranked Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, and the game turns on whether the Ducks can slow the Wildcats on the ground. Northwestern runs for nearly 205 yards a game, and that is the number Oregon's defense has to drag down.

The Matchup

Records: Northwestern 6-1 (5-0 home); Oregon 4-3 (3-1 home)
Rankings: Northwestern No. 20; Oregon unranked
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31 – 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
Line: Oregon -3.5, O/U 47.5

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What Decides It

Northwestern's run game is the matchup Oregon has to win. The Ducks allow about 128 rushing yards a game, which is a solid number. Northwestern still out-gains that mark by roughly 77 yards a game, so something has to give.

A ground game that productive keeps Aidan Chiles in manageable downs. He has thrown just 1 interception all season, and an offense that can run and avoid turnovers is built to control a road game.

Northwestern allows fewer points than Oregon, and Oregon's offense has gone cold over its last three games. The Wildcats allow about 17 points a game while scoring about 35, an 18-point margin, and they have won 4 straight.

Oregon's season scoring average of 33 looks healthier than its last three games. That figure leans on an 84-0 win in September, and the Ducks have not scored more than 17 points in any of their last three games. They went 1-2 in that stretch, including a 10-21 loss on the road last week.

Oregon's way back in is through the air. The Ducks throw for about 278 yards a game, while Northwestern gives up about 212 through the air. That gap of roughly 66 yards is where Oregon can push, and Dante Moore has thrown 9 touchdowns on 69 of 99 passing.

The total is closer to the truth than the season averages. These teams combine for about 68 points a game against a total of 47.5, a gap of roughly 20 points. Oregon's recent scoring drought backs up the market: all of the Ducks' last three games finished well under the number.

Players to Watch

Northwestern Wildcats

Passing: Aidan Chiles – 117-164, 1,617 YDS, 12-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Caleb Komolafe – 88 ATT, 551 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Griffin Wilde – 39 REC, 615 YDS, 4 TD

Wilde is the big-play threat, averaging more than 15 yards a catch. If Oregon crowds the line to stop Komolafe, he is the one who makes the Ducks pay.

Oregon Ducks

Passing: Dante Moore – 69-99, 926 YDS, 9 TD
Rushing: Jordon Davison – 88 ATT, 422 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Dakorien Moore – 34 REC, 417 YDS, 4 TD

Davison has matched Komolafe's carry count but turned it into more touchdowns.

Prediction

Northwestern 24, Oregon 20. The Wildcats have won 4 straight, run the ball better than Oregon can stop it and defend well enough to survive the Ducks' passing edge. Oregon's offense has not shown it can score enough lately to cover for that, so take Northwestern outright and the under.