No. 5 Notre Dame and Navy meet Saturday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, a neutral site, with kickoff at noon ET on ABC. The game turns on one collision: a Navy offense that runs for nearly 308 yards a game against a Notre Dame defense that has smothered opposing ground games.

The Matchup

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 6-1 (3-0 home), No. 5
Navy Midshipmen: 2-5 (2-1 home), unranked
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (neutral site)
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Line: ND -30.5, O/U 56.5

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What Decides It

Navy has to win on the ground, and Notre Dame's run defense is built to stop it. Navy's offense leans heavily on the run. The Midshipmen throw for only about 119 yards a game, so most of their production comes on the ground.

Notre Dame is the wrong opponent for that plan. The gap between what Navy usually gains on the ground and what the Irish usually allow is roughly 240 yards a game. One of those numbers has to give.

The passing game is no escape hatch either. Notre Dame allows about 168 passing yards a game, which is more than Navy typically throws for anyway. Navy would have to become a different offense to exploit it.

Notre Dame's margin comes from both sides of the ball. The Irish score 41 points a game and allow 13, a differential of nearly 28. Navy, by contrast, gives up about 29 points a game, nearly as many as it scores.

The Irish should also find room on the ground. They run for about 183 yards a game against a Navy defense allowing about 109, a clear edge for Notre Dame. Balance like that makes it hard for Navy to sell out against any one thing.

The total looks low against season averages. These teams combine for about 71 points a game, roughly 14 more than the posted total. Cashing the over would likely require Navy to score near its season rate against the Irish defense.

Form cuts both ways. Navy has dropped four of its last five, including a 49-39 home loss in its most recent game. Notre Dame's lone loss came in its last outing, 28-24 on the road, after four straight wins.

Players to Watch

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Passing: CJ Carr – 129-193, 1,639 YDS, 16-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jonaz Walton – 57 ATT, 426 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Jordan Faison – 34 REC, 451 YDS, 4 TD

Carr has thrown 16 touchdowns and 1 interception. Walton leads a ground game that should test Navy's run defense.

Navy Midshipmen

Passing: Jackson Gutierrez – 32-64, 692 YDS, 7-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jackson Gutierrez – 150 ATT, 869 YDS, 12 TD
Receiving: Jordan Collins – 6 REC, 212 YDS, 3 TD

Gutierrez leads Navy in both passing and rushing, so Navy's chances run through him. Collins has made his few catches count, turning half of them into touchdowns.

Weather

Conditions: Mostly sunny, 49°F, gusts 18 mph, 0% precipitation

Gusts matter more to Notre Dame, which throws far more than Navy does. A steady wind could push the Irish toward Walton and the run game, which plays into their edge anyway.

Prediction

Notre Dame 41, Navy 13. The Irish run defense takes away the one thing Navy does at volume, and Notre Dame's offense has the balance to score near its average. The spread is steep, so the Irish win comfortably but fall just short of covering, and Navy's limited scoring keeps this under the total.