No. 24 Oklahoma State visits Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 31, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET on Fox. The question is whether the Cyclones' pass defense can hold up against a Cowboys offense built around Drew Mestemaker's arm. If it can't, Iowa State does not have the offense to trade scores.

The Matchup

Away: No. 24 Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2, 4-0 home)
Home: Iowa State Cyclones (3-4, 3-1 home)
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 7 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): OKST -9.5, O/U 57.5

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What Decides It

Oklahoma State's passing game is the mismatch that should settle this. The Cowboys throw for 341 yards a game. Iowa State allows about 218 through the air, roughly 123 yards less than Oklahoma State usually produces.

That gap matters because the Cyclones can't answer in kind. Iowa State averages about 177 passing yards, fewer than the roughly 226 Oklahoma State typically gives up. The Cowboys' pass defense is beatable, but Iowa State's passing game hasn't shown it can do the beating.

Oklahoma State doesn't have to be one-dimensional. The Cowboys run for about 188 yards a game against an Iowa State defense allowing 152. When an offense has the edge both on the ground and through the air, the defense can't sell out to stop either.

Iowa State's best path runs through Aiden Flora. The Cyclones average 163 rushing yards against an Oklahoma State run defense allowing about 138. Controlling the clock on the ground is the cleanest way to keep Mestemaker on the sideline.

The total looks low if Oklahoma State plays to form. These teams combine for about 66 points a game, roughly 8 more than the 57.5 posted. The Cowboys alone average 40 and put up 57 in a win over their last opponent.

The caution is Iowa State's recent offense. The Cyclones lost 39-3 last time out and 24-10 the game before, both on the road. At home, though, they scored 45 and 55 in two of their last three home games, so Ames may help the over.

Players to Watch

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Passing: Drew Mestemaker – 157-239, 2,326 YDS, 20-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Caleb Hawkins – 142 ATT, 712 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Wyatt Young – 36 REC, 639 YDS, 6 TD

Mestemaker has 20 touchdowns against 6 interceptions, and Young is his top target with 6 scores of his own. Hawkins gives the offense the ground game that keeps defenses honest.

Iowa State Cyclones

Passing: Jaylen Raynor – 93-158, 1,107 YDS, 7-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Aiden Flora – 102 ATT, 716 YDS, 6 TD
Receiving: Omari Hayes – 19 REC, 237 YDS, 1 TD

Flora has out-gained Hawkins on fewer carries and has more rushing touchdowns than Hawkins, 6 to 2. Raynor's passing has to give the Cyclones more than it usually does to keep this close.

Prediction

Oklahoma State wins and covers. The Cowboys hold the edge in both the passing and running matchups, and Iowa State's offense has scored 10 points or fewer in each of its last two games. Flora keeps the Cyclones in it for a half, but Mestemaker and Young pull away late.

Pick: Oklahoma State 38, Iowa State 24