No. 12 Ohio State hosts Oregon at Ohio Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, and the story is the Buckeyes' defense. It allows 15.5 points a game, the stingiest mark on either side. Oregon's job is to find enough offense against it.

The Matchup

Away: No. 23 Oregon Ducks (5-3, 4-1 home)
Home: No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2, 4-0 home)
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Line (DraftKings): OSU -7.5, O/U 46.5

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What Decides It

Ohio State's defense holds the clearest edge in this game.

The Buckeyes allow about 274 yards a game, while Oregon's defense gives up about 342. On the scoreboard, Ohio State is also ahead, allowing fewer points than the Ducks do at roughly 21 a game.

The run defense is where it shows most. Oregon's offense runs for about 140 yards a game; Ohio State's defense allows about 96 on the ground. Jordon Davison has 7 rushing touchdowns, but he is running into the tougher front of the two.

Both passing games are built to attack, but Ohio State's has the softer target.

Oregon throws for 285 yards a game against an Ohio State pass defense allowing about 178. Ohio State throws for about 315 against an Oregon pass defense allowing 208. Both offenses sit well above what the opposing secondary gives up.

The difference is who they are facing. Oregon's pass defense allows more than Ohio State's, and Julian Sayin brings 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions to that matchup. Jeremiah Smith, with 1,067 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, is the player Oregon has to account for on every snap.

The total is a bet on defense, not on these offenses' season rates.

These teams average a combined 69.9 points a game, yet the total sits well below that. Recent results give both sides an argument. Ohio State scored 18 and 19 in its last two games, both on the road, and lost 18-30 last time out.

Oregon scored 15, 17 and 10 in three straight games before putting up 34 in its most recent win. With Ohio State's defense the strongest unit in this matchup, the under is the more defensible side.

Players to Watch

Oregon Ducks

Passing: Dylan Raiola – 96-145, 1,097 YDS, 9-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jordon Davison – 91 ATT, 439 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Dakorien Moore – 41 REC, 545 YDS, 6 TD

Moore is Raiola's top target, with 6 touchdown catches. Oregon needs him to win against a secondary that has kept opponents well under Oregon's own passing average.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Passing: Julian Sayin – 131-192, 2,007 YDS, 19-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Bo Jackson – 128 ATT, 637 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Jeremiah Smith – 62 REC, 1,067 YDS, 13 TD

Sayin's passing yardage is well ahead of Raiola's. Bo Jackson gives the Buckeyes a ground option against an Oregon run defense that allows about 134 yards a game.

Weather

Conditions: Intermittent clouds, 52°F, gusts to 17 mph, 1% chance of precipitation

The wind is the one variable to track in a game where both offenses gain more through the air than on the ground.

Prediction

Ohio State is unbeaten at Ohio Stadium and has the better defense in every measure that matters here. Oregon's run game hits a front allowing 95.8 yards a game, and Sayin and Smith get the softer secondary. Ohio State's defense keeps this under the total, and the Buckeyes cover.